European Air and Missile Defence: Who Is Buying What (ESSI, IRIS-T, Patriot, Arrow 3, SAMP/T, Skyranger)

Zelenskyy, after forty minutes with Trump in New York, asks for Patriot interceptors from US stocks this winter in exchange for the 600 PAC-2 rounds Germany is to supply in 2027–28 — a German figure Berlin has still not confirmed; he calls it "a good step" that the idea was not rejected, and says Trump has not agreed. The same day he tells Macron Ukraine is ready to buy further SAMP/T systems and missiles on the EU loan.

Congressional records dated 15 September show the State Department clearing a German transfer of ten MIM-104E GEM-T interceptors to Ukraine at USD 29.6 million — about USD 3 million a round — the only quantified Patriot draw from Bundeswehr stock since Pistorius's 8 September pledge. The same week Pistorius presses Washington for a PAC-3 MSE production line in Germany, offering to build "all elements of the Patriot value chain"; the decision sits with the US government and Lockheed Martin.

Pistorius and Hegseth sign a letter of intent at the Pentagon on joint development, production and licensed manufacturing; Berlin's list carries PAC-3 and Tomahawk, but the only Patriot production on the record is the GEM-T co-production at Schrobenhausen, and no variant, company or date for a PAC-3 line is named. Poland is the competing bidder for the same US decision.

Trump says aboard Air Force One that a Patriot production licence for Ukraine is under negotiation for "a less sophisticated version" — read in Kyiv as PAC-2; Zelenskyy says Canada's CAD 350 million package, announced 10 September, buys PAC-3 rounds through the US Jumpstart channel.

The Commission approves a second EUR 6.1 billion from the EUR 90 billion loan, allocating the full EUR 28.3 billion 2026 defence window; two of five derogations admit US-made PAC-3 rounds, including via NATO's PURL channel. Kubilius puts the winter question as whether member states holding PAC-3 stock will transfer now against Ukraine's 2027 contracts; none has.

Two Patriot fire units built against Switzerland's 2022 order go to the Bundeswehr instead, replacing two Germany gave Ukraine, on Hartpunkt's reporting citing the BMVg — Bern's delivery slot becomes Berlin's backfill while the Swiss second-system decision is still open.

At the 36th Ukraine Defence Contact Group Pistorius announces PAC-2 interceptors from Bundeswehr stock, no quantity or date, and appeals to "all members of the UDCG to look into their own stocks"; Ukraine's new defence minister Khmara says Kyiv is contracting about 1,000 Patriot missiles for delivery over years and asks for 300 from stocks now against those future rounds.

At the Wicklow informal, Greece and Spain decline to release expiring Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, on the Dutch procurement minister's account; Kallas: "no concrete success today".

Greece and Israel sign Achilles Shield in Tel Aviv at EUR 3.035 billion — David's Sling, SPYDER and Barak MX as one national network with ELTA radars and a Rafael-developed C2 layer, full operational capability targeted 35 months from activation — inside the up-to-EUR 3.5 billion ceiling KYSEA set on 23 July.

Sweden's FMV signs Naval Group for four Luleå-class FDI frigates at about EUR 4.3 billion, armed with Aster 30 and CAMM-ER (no Sylver A70), deliveries 2030, 2032, 2033 and 2034 — the Aster round's third Nordic customer after France's and Italy's own navies is a ship, not a battery. The same day Estonia's Pevkur says a decision in principle on a ballistic-missile-defence layer is one to two months off, among Patriot, SAMP/T and David's Sling; he resigns on 3 September with the choice unmade.

La Repubblica reports Italy's thirteenth Ukraine package as four SAMP/T NG systems, Aster 30 from Italian stocks from October, seven long-range radars and an Italian–French licence for Aster 30 B1NT production in Ukraine, about EUR 3 billion on the EU loan; Defence Minister Crosetto says the same day that no such package has been adopted and none exists as a formal act.

Lithuania's army chief Vaikšnoras confirms NASAMS has replaced RBS 70 on the approaches to Vilnius, two batteries in service and a third due in 2028.

The Commission approves a first EUR 6.1 billion from the EU loan for air and missile defence, missiles, ammunition and radars, on top of EUR 16 billion already approved; at the Coalition of the Willing Zelenskyy puts Patriot interceptor receipts at 675 in 2023, 364 in 2025 and a projected 264 in 2026, asks for at least 300 before winter, and cites an agreement with Merz for 600 PAC-2 rounds over 2027–28 that Berlin has not confirmed.

Capital/dpa report, from internal Bundeswehr and BAAINBw documents, that Skyranger 30 deliveries have moved from mid-2026 to mid-2027 (first series vehicle August 2027 per the papers) with performance "not finally assessable", and that the Boxer heavy weapon carrier (123 vehicles, ~€2.7bn) is at least 11 months behind contract for "insufficient maturity and quality"; Rheinmetall disputes the Boxer figure and puts the Skyranger delay at five months, at the customer's request.

Ukrainian officials tell the FT the air force has stopped publishing ballistic interception counts as policy, that Patriot launchers have sat largely empty for much of the summer and that only one of the dozens of Russian ballistic missiles fired in August 2026 has been downed; the overnight Kyiv barrage kills at least 16, with 39 of 44 cruise missiles and 147 of 170 drones downed. Von der Leyen calls anti-ballistic supply "the most urgent of priorities".

The Swiss Federal Council decides to request a CHF 970 million supplementary credit from parliament for advance payments to hold air-defence delivery slots — CHF 650m toward IRIS-T SLM, CHF 250m toward Rheinmetall truck-mounted 35mm guns (eight fire units, operational by 2028), CHF 60m toward a semi-mobile medium-range radar, CHF 10m toward counter-drone capability. The purchases themselves are to be decided with the 2026 Army Report; no payment flows before parliamentary approval.

US Department of War signs Northrop Grumman as a second source for PAC-3 MSE solid rocket motors (~$2bn of a >$3bn, two-agreement package), plus ~$1bn for THAAD components; production at Allegany Ballistics Laboratory, West Virginia.

Hensoldt's half-year order intake doubles year-on-year to €2.812bn, backlog reaches a record €10.356bn; Leonardo books €16.3bn in H1 orders (+39%) and raises full-year order and profit guidance.

Hensoldt delivers the first three CAIRAS missile-warning sets for Helsing's CA-1 Europa uncrewed aircraft, the first disclosed order under the two firms' February 2026 sensor partnership.

Greece's KYSEA approves "Achilles Shield," a multi-layer air-and-missile-defence system worth up to €3.5 billion built on Israeli Rafael and IAI radars and interceptors (Spyder, David's Sling, Barak MX); Dendias targets full operational status within 35 months and 25% Greek industrial workshare.

Pistorius says Germany will examine Macron's 17 July SAMP/T NG co-production offer "very concretely," but names the obstacle: a second air-defence system beside Patriot, where COMLOG already holds a €5.1bn NSPA order for up to 1,000 GEM-T interceptors with a new Schrobenhausen line.

Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine and the UK sign a Paris declaration founding the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition, naming a shared interceptor (expected to be Ukraine's Fire Point Freyja) its "Flagship Project"; funding commitment is limited to "exploring appropriate opportunities."

Switzerland's VBS opens contract talks with manufacturers in France, Israel and South Korea for a second, non-US ground-based air-defence system alongside its Patriot order, which the VBS now estimates has slipped four to five years; national armaments director Urs Loher rules out Israel's Arrow.

Estonia receives the first of three Diehl IRIS-T SLM fire units at Ämari — its first medium-range ground-based air defence — under the ~€400m Estonian leg of the joint Estonia-Latvia contract; the remaining two units arrive in 2027.

Hensoldt and Ukraine's Fire Point sign a partnership at Eurosatory to build the FREYJA ballistic-missile-defence system: Hensoldt supplies the TRML-4D radar, Fire Point holds prime contractor status and overall design authority.

Trump's 11 June memorandum invoking the Defense Production Act is made public for bottlenecks in solid rocket motors, igniters and guidance systems; the Pentagon pairs it with an early-stage GM Defense–Lockheed Martin collaboration on high-rate munitions manufacturing.

France's DGA discloses an OCCAR contract with Eurosam (placed 30 April) integrating the VL MICA missile into SAMP/T NG alongside Aster 30; eight multi-layer systems reach the French Air and Space Force from 2030, up to twelve by 2035 if further tranches are confirmed.

L3Harris issues a purchase order to Poland's Wojskowe Zakłady Elektroniczne for serial production of Patriot PAC-3 Attitude Control Motors at a new Zielonka facility under the WISLA offset programme; no earlier in-country PAC-3 component production inside an EU or NATO state is recorded.

The US informs Switzerland that its 2022 order for five Patriot systems (CHF 2.3bn) will slip five to seven years from the original 2026–28 schedule, with cost potentially doubling to CHF 4.6bn; the Federal Council opens tenders to alternative suppliers in Germany, France, Israel and South Korea, with termination on the table.

Rafael and Volkswagen sign a letter of intent for Rafael to acquire VW's Osnabrück plant (roughly 2,400 staff) to absorb air-defence and counter-drone production lines; 60-day exclusivity window, target signing late June.

Denmark selects SAMP/T NG, its first customer outside the developer nations France and Italy; deliveries scheduled from 2028 within Eurosam's existing production envelope.

US Army awards Lockheed Martin a $4.76 billion firm-fixed-price PAC-3 MSE production contract (94% FMS-funded, ~900–950 interceptors), part of scaling annual output from roughly 600 to 2,000 interceptors by 2030.

Stern reports, citing Bundeswehr and parliamentary sources, that first serial Skyranger 30 deliveries will slip at least 16 months (Rheinmetall discloses only 5) to 2027 at the earliest, full development to 2029; the ministry and army reject Rheinmetall's ~€300m truck-mounted bridge turret after a failed shooting test.

Swiss Federal Council requests CHF 3.4bn: ~CHF 1bn for two more IRIS-T SLM fire units (five to seven total), CHF 800m for eight Rheinmetall Skynex 35mm counter-drone systems (deliveries from 2028), and CHF 394m absorbing F-35A cost overruns that cut the planned fleet from 36 to roughly 30 jets.

Thales launches SkyDefender, a multi-layer IAMD architecture (ForceShield, SAMP-T NG with Ground Fire 300, SMART-L MM/UHF, Thales Alenia Space early warning) orchestrated by SkyView C2 with cortAIx AI acceleration, entering a three-way European command-architecture contest against Leonardo's Michelangelo and Rheinmetall Electronic Solutions.

Diehl Defence unveils a common SLM/X launcher at Enforce Tac, admitting the 80km-range SLX interceptor into the existing 8-canister IRIS-T SLM launcher without a new fire-control architecture.

The Luftwaffe's Air Defence Missile Group 61 at Todendorf receives the first IRIS-T SLM fire unit in full German national configuration.

Hensoldt announces a leased "Ulm 2" facility targeting series output of up to 1,000 air- and drone-defence radars per year from 2027, citing capacity limits after two years of sustained expansion.

Diehl Defence and Lockheed Martin sign a memorandum of understanding to explore PAC-3 MSE production, sustainment and R&D cooperation aimed at expanding European supply-chain capacity for the interceptor, which is fielded by 17 nations.

Germany's first Arrow 3 battery reaches initial operational capability at Holzdorf — no other exo-atmospheric interceptor is deployed in Europe outside Israel — under a contract worth roughly €4 billion signed in November 2023; full operational capability across four batteries is targeted for 2030.

Denmark orders an interim IRIS-T SLM fire unit plus an expansion package, layering the system alongside NASAMS ahead of its April 2026 SAMP/T NG selection.

Germany adds a roughly €4.2bn IRIS-T SLM package covering 14 additional fire units, taking planned German holdings toward 50 systems in total.

Slovenia orders two more IRIS-T SLM fire units, with first delivery in 2027 and the second and third in 2028.

Switzerland signs a CHF ~500–660m IRIS-T SLM and TRML-4D radar contract for five fire units under ESSI's Bodluv MR programme — later expanded to seven fire units under the 2026 Armeebotschaft.

Denmark confirms a fast-tracked NASAMS (Kongsberg) + IRIS-T SLM (Diehl) + MICA VL (MBDA) short-to-medium range acquisition targeting 2026 operational capability; the Danish Ministry of Defence puts the package at more than DKK 6 billion (about €800 million), financed from the Acceleration Fund.

Sweden orders an IRIS-T SLM package worth roughly €810m (SEK 9bn) — seven fire units (49 vehicles) configured with two launchers per battery rather than the standard three; deliveries run mid-2028 to 2030.

The Bundestag Budget Committee approves Germany's €763.5m order for 120 PAC-3 MSE missiles (€641.6m from the Sondervermögen, €121.9m VAT), paid upfront to secure delivery priority; 75 missiles due in 2028, 45 in 2029.

Bulgaria selects IRIS-T SLM over Patriot on cost grounds — roughly $1.4bn for seven batteries against an estimated $7bn for equivalent Patriot national coverage — with an initial €182m contract for one fire unit plus options for five more by 2032.

Germany signs its roughly €4 billion Arrow 3 contract with Israel, the basis for the December 2025 Holzdorf initial operational capability and a planned three further battery sites by 2030.

Estonia and Latvia sign a joint IRIS-T SLM procurement with Diehl in Nuremberg; the Estonian leg, worth about €400m, becomes the largest single defence contract in Estonian history.