Signal No. 177 · EU refinery dialogue: fuel for the armed forces

Andrius Kubilius, the EU defence commissioner, and Dan Jørgensen, the energy commissioner, chaired the Commission's opening dialogue with European refiners on Wednesday, with fuel producers, engineering firms, industry associations and NATO at the table. The Commission's stated aim is short-term measures "to maximise production of the fuels that are most urgently needed, including jet fuel and diesel, essential for military operations". EU refineries supply about 70 per cent of the jet fuel and 85 per cent of the diesel consumed in Europe. Separately, under its AccelerateEU plan, the Commission has begun revising the rules "to ensure the availability of strategic fuel stocks and their accessibility for military needs in exceptional circumstances".

Kubilius said supplies are sufficient today; in peacetime the armed forces use about 8 per cent of capacity, by industry figures. "During military crisis, according to NATO force model, during the first 10 days, NATO will need to move and to sustain 100,000 troops, and we can imagine what does it mean in terms of consumption of fuel and production of fuel," he said, adding that how long Europe could hold out on its current fuel is confidential. He listed four priorities — production capacity, a competitive refining industry, fuel transport in a crisis and resilient fuel infrastructure — and called for the Central Europe Pipeline System, the Cold War network NATO still runs, to be expanded to supply the eastern flank. These questions, he said, will go into future EU military mobility legislation. A NATO spokesperson pointed to the EUR 27 billion Fuel Supply Chain Capability Programme Plan allies approved in July to modernise fuel storage and pipelines, particularly in the east and south-east.

Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission president, had announced the dialogue as part of the Commission's response to the energy crisis. Jørgensen spoke mainly about supply and prices: around a quarter of EU refineries have closed in two decades, removing about 10 per cent of capacity, and the global diesel market, as the International Energy Agency has said, will stay tight "well into 2027". "This is not just a matter of economic competitiveness. It is also a matter of security," he said. Industry put forward proposals for the Commission to assess; technical work follows, and the dialogue meets again early next year.

The Norwegian National Security Authority, NSM, published the national cyber risk level on Tuesday, "openly and unclassified", and set it at high. The scale runs from very low to extremely high; moderate is the normal state, in which cyber operations against Norwegian organisations are expected. NSM names the defence sector, the defence industry and the space sector as exposed to high risk, along with critical infrastructure and suppliers to organisations that matter for national security. The threats it lists are mapping, attempted and actual compromises, ransomware and denial-of-service attacks.

"Over the last half year we have seen a tripling of successful cyber operations against Norwegian organisations. Several of these have had serious consequences and still carry a potential for harm to national security," said Arne Christian Haugstøyl, its director. NSM rates the use of language models and agentic AI in cyber operations a serious risk, though it says such use is not yet documented in Norway. Its 21 measures for all organisations are, it says, not new.

The Crown Prosecution Service announced on Tuesday that two men, both 24, had been charged under the National Security Act 2023 following a Counter Terrorism Policing investigation into what it called "a high-profile incident involving RAF Fairford", the Gloucestershire base US bombers used for strikes on Iran this year. Mohmed Abdulkarim is charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service between 31 August and 28 September; Nouman Essghir with entering a prohibited place for a purpose prejudicial to the United Kingdom on 22 August. They were due to appear at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Tuesday; six other men remain on bail.

Laurence Taylor, the assistant commissioner who heads Counter Terrorism Policing, said police believe the country Abdulkarim was assisting is Iran: "We have seen a range of incidents in recent months that we believe have been directed by the Iranian state." On 12 October Andy Burnham, the prime minister, told parliament the Fairford plot was "almost certainly" directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Britain sanctioned two Iranians over "hostile activity"; Tehran denies responsibility. Essghir was arrested outside the base on 27 September. Reuters reports that the US B-1 bombers there were withdrawn after the incident.