Signal No. 178 · UK Budget: 3 per cent dated for 2030

John Healey, the chancellor, presented his first Budget to the House of Commons on Wednesday. "At the Spending Review next year, I confirm that I will set out the details of how we will meet our NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035, with a target date for 3% in 2030," he said; the Spending Review is where multi-year departmental totals are set. The Budget closes the funding gap in the Defence Investment Plan: of the GBP 15 billion announced in June for the plan over 2026–27 to 2029–30, GBP 10.3 billion was to come from reprioritised spending. The residual GBP 4.7 billion now comes from GBP 1.7 billion of unallocated contingency in the Treasury's capital reserve and GBP 3 billion from a second 1 per cent cut to departmental capital budgets from 2027–28 to 2029–30, on top of the 1 per cent cut over 2026–27 to 2029–30 announced in June.

For the path to 3 per cent, Healey launched an Innovative Defence Financing Taskforce, with a Defence Financing and Investment Strategy to follow. The Budget document says the National Wealth Fund and the British Business Bank will deploy up to GBP 5 billion over four years into defence, dual-use and other sectors that support national security, sovereign capability and resilience; the government's letter to the British Business Bank expects up to GBP 900 million of its GBP 2 billion funding uplift to go into defence and dual-use technologies.

Britain, the Netherlands, Finland and Poland said in a joint statement that they will open treaty negotiations on the Multilateral Defence Mechanism, "while maintaining the aim of having the MDM up and running in 2027". The mechanism, which Healey's speech called the "Multilateral Defence Mechanism or Bank", is to aggregate demand and enable joint procurement; the June plan allocated GBP 400 million towards Britain's contribution. On Sunday Britain and Canada said they had concluded it was best to develop "two distinct but complementary institutions that work in partnership": the MDM and Canada's Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, whose nine participating countries are Canada, Albania, Belgium, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Romania, Türkiye and Ukraine, and whose articles are due to be signed in Luxembourg on 30 November.

Andy Burnham, the prime minister, and Healey also told Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's president, of more than GBP 10 billion of further support. Most is finance: GBP 7 billion of economic support over three years and a GBP 3 billion increase in UK Export Finance capacity for Ukraine; the new military money is GBP 500 million for Ukraine's air defences this winter.

Gitanas Nausėda, Lithuania's president, said after a meeting of the State Defence Council on Thursday that universal conscription will start in 2032: "I think implementing conscription from 2032 is optimal." Lithuania now drafts more than 5,000 young people a year by selection; universal conscription would raise that to about 7,500. Women can continue to serve voluntarily. Conscripts could also train as drone operators or serve with the State Border Guard Service and the fire and rescue services. Lithuania restored partial conscription in 2015, after Russia annexed Crimea.

The six years are for barracks and instructors: about 300 instructors are to be trained and housing built for the larger intake, while conscript training is to be balanced against refresher training for reservists. Mindaugas Sinkevičius, the prime minister, said the government had wanted a faster transition, but the military said it would be ready only by 2032.

The Commission on Thursday invited all member states to apply for EUR 21.3 billion in a second round of SAFE, the EUR 150 billion Security Action for Europe loan instrument adopted in May 2025. It encourages them to include common procurement with Ukraine in their plans and to put first the urgent needs of Ukraine's armed forces and their own in air and missile defence, drones and counter-drone systems, and ammunition and missiles. Tentative allocations follow within two weeks of the submission deadline, which the announcement does not give.

On the first round, the Commission reports loan agreements approved for all 19 participating states, 16 of them signed, and almost EUR 13.5 billion paid out to the 11 that asked for pre-financing; when plans were submitted in November 2025, some states asked for less than initially agreed.

In Tokyo on Wednesday, after meeting Sanae Takaichi, Japan's prime minister, Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor, said Germany is examining whether it could join GCAP, the fighter programme of Britain, Italy and Japan. "Japan would like a decision at the start of the new year," he said. "Whether it can go that fast, I cannot promise from the German side." The two defence ministers are to meet "in a very short time" to discuss it. Germany is assessing all its options, he said. Takaichi did not name GCAP; she said Japan would promote defence-industry cooperation where the two countries' capabilities complement each other.

Germany and France ended the joint FCAS fighter in June. On Wednesday Airbus said it is working closely with the German and Spanish governments on a next-generation European fighter; on a media call, Guillaume Faury, its chief executive, described Germany as seeking other government partners, with GCAP a clear potential partner, by Reuters' account.