Signal No. 157 · Kaliningrad: Russia's nuclear warning to NATO, in writing

Russia has sent NATO a non-paper, an informal diplomatic document, stating that it "will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should NATO countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country". Reuters, which saw the document, reported it on Wednesday. The note accuses the alliance of a "dangerous and reckless course" carrying "high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict", including the possibility "of Russian strikes against decision-making centres in the alliance's member states right from the outset of the conflict". When it was delivered was not reported.

Over the preceding three days Russia's embassies in Belgium, Ireland and the United Kingdom issued statements accusing NATO of escalation through exercises and planning scenarios involving Kaliningrad; the Irish statement named Gallant Boar 2026, a Lithuanian-Polish-French exercise it said was "specifically aimed at Kaliningrad", and described near-continuous NATO exercises from June to September in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland and the Baltic Sea. On Wednesday Yulia Zhdanova, head of Russia's delegation to the Vienna arms-control talks, told the OSCE Forum for Security Co-operation that NATO "models and practices specific military-political isolation scenarios regarding Kaliningrad Oblast". Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said the diplomats were reminding "hot heads in Europe" of Russia's "key policy documents".

NATO confirmed the document and its reply. Allison Hart, the spokesperson: "I can confirm that Russia sent a non-paper to NATO and that we have sent a response, noting that NATO is a defensive Alliance and none of our activities or exercises pose a risk to any part of Russia. We strongly denounce the threat of force, including any irresponsible nuclear rhetoric." Mark Rutte, at the Euronews defence summit in Brussels on Wednesday: "There is no immediate threat to NATO territory." And: "Everybody knows that he can never win against NATO. I don't take this seriously." NATO had to reply nonetheless, he said, "and make clear that NATO is a defensive alliance". He declined to confirm the note's contents, saying that was for Russia to disclose. Putin, he said, "wants to divide us. He wants us to lose attention when it comes to Ukraine." In Vilnius on Tuesday, Deividas Matulionis, national security aide to President Nausėda, had called the threats "completely baseless" and "a measure of psychological pressure".

Kongsberg said on Tuesday it had signed a contract worth NOK 10 billion for the delivery of the NASAMS air-defence system to Belgium. The counterparty is the Netherlands' armed-forces procurement authority, already a NASAMS customer, buying on Belgium's behalf; the end user is the Belgian Air Force. The release gives no unit count, no delivery date and no Belgian signatory. At the Ankara summit in July, Belgium and the Netherlands signed the cooperation agreement under which Belgium takes ten NASAMS systems; Theo Francken, the defence minister, said then: "After twenty years without one, Belgium will rebuild its own powerful air defence capability with this joint purchase." The same day Kongsberg signed a contract of about NOK 1.5 billion with the Netherlands to expand its CITADEL programme, several NOMADS short-range systems plus increases to NASAMS, on the 2024 agreement, and a third with Oshkosh Defense Europe for PROTECTOR RS4 remote weapon stations with a counter-drone fit on Dutch JLTVs, value undisclosed.

Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, said at Airbus's Bremen plant on Tuesday, where about 800 staff build the A400M fuselage, that the ministry is thinking "very concretely at present about replacing logistical aircraft with new tactical ones": 16 new A400M. The Luftwaffe's 53 A400M, the last delivered in April, all fly from Wunstorf. Thirty-seven are in tactical configuration; 16 are in logistic configuration, without infrared self-protection or tactical datalinks. Pistorius called the cost "a multi-billion amount" and the talks with Airbus "very good". The Bundestag's budget committee has to approve. Should the purchase go ahead, the 16 aircraft taken out of service would be offered to partner nations, dpa reported. There is no order, no committee submission and no date, and the ministry issued no release.

Latvia's defence ministry, the Slovak government and Tatra Defence Systems signed a trilateral agreement on Wednesday for 155 mm Morana self-propelled howitzers and rocket artillery, financed through the EU's SAFE loan instrument. Some of the equipment is to be built and assembled in Latvia with Czech and Slovak support, and the first systems are due in 2027. Neither quantity nor value was published; Czechoslovak Group, the parent of Tatra Defence Systems and Excalibur Army, put the project in the hundreds of millions of euros, with the howitzers and launchers on the Tatra Force 8x8 chassis and the 155 mm weapon made by ZŤS ŠPECIÁL in Slovakia. Raivis Melnis, the defence minister: "Our goal is not only to acquire modern military equipment, but also to develop local production, service and technological capabilities." Robert Kaliňák, Slovakia's deputy prime minister and defence minister, signed for Bratislava.

In Bucharest the same day, Major General Ion-Cornel Pleșa, head of Romania's armaments directorate, and Brigadier General Romuald Maksymiuk signed for the Polish ministry a letter of intent witnessed by Sorin Moldovan and Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, state secretaries of the two ministries. The two ministries commit to intensify cooperation in support of the defence industry, bilaterally and in NATO and EU frameworks, and to "collaborate closely" on the acquisition of "the strike system with loitering munitions", which the Romanian ministry lists among its projects to be financed through SAFE. The release names no system, supplier, quantity or value; Sobkowiak-Czarnecka wrote on X that Poland "is selling its products abroad again" and that loitering munitions "will go not only to our army, but also to another partner, Romania".

From 18:00 on Tuesday, by the Ukrainian Air Force's count, Russia launched 188 attack drones, 86 of them jet-powered, with Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles from Voronezh and Bryansk and Zircon and Oniks anti-ship missiles from Kursk; by 08:00, 160 aerial assets had been shot down or jammed, five of them missiles, with hits at 18 locations and Kyiv region the main direction. At least three people were killed in Kyiv. Centrenergo said generating equipment at the Trypilska thermal power plant south of Kyiv was damaged, and gave no figures.

Moldova's defence ministry said a drone entered its airspace at 05:43 and crashed near Hîrbovăț in Anenii Noi district, where it exploded; the police said it detonated about 40 metres up against a telecommunications mast, and no one was hurt. At 10:26 a second drone crossed over Lunga, in Dubăsari district. Anatolie Nosatii, the defence minister: "It is a jet-powered drone that entered Moldova's territory in the east through the Transnistrian segment. Now it is moving toward the Soroca region." Its speed, he said, was about 400 kilometres an hour; airspace over the north and centre of the country was closed. Romania's defence ministry tracked a target east of Izmail on the Ukrainian side and scrambled two Spanish F-18s; no incursion was recorded. Poland's Operational Command put aircraft up at about 06:00 and again at about 09:00, closing Lublin and Rzeszów airports, and recorded no violation.

Sweden's government announced on Wednesday that Gripens of F 17 Blekinge will fly air surveillance over Poland from 1 October for two months, operating from Sweden with a smaller forward element in Poland, in support of NATO's integrated air and missile defence and the logistics flows to Ukraine; it is Sweden's second such deployment. Pål Jonson, the defence minister: "The serious security situation and repeated violations of NATO airspace demonstrate the need for high military readiness on the eastern flank." The number of aircraft was not stated.