Signal No. 152 · Two US battalions, one heavy

Robertas Kaunas, Lithuania's defence minister, said by telephone from the United States on Wednesday, after meeting Elbridge Colby, the US under secretary of defense for policy, in Washington: "Two American battalions will arrive in Lithuania at the end of October; the preparations are under way." One battalion is heavy, "which means heavy weaponry is coming too", the other an engineer battalion "which will help the development of our division"; Abrams tanks are among the equipment, BNS reports, the strength similar to before at about a thousand, and the tour nine months, as before. The number, he said, was not discussed at the meeting, and he would not say whether the full strength is in place at the end of October or begins arriving then. He also put a permanent base to Colby: "This is a new proposal, but given the regional security situation and the cooperation between our countries, I think it is logical to consider such an idea." A permanent US presence was written into the coalition agreement of 18 June; Article 137 of the constitution, which bars permanent foreign bases, comes to the first of its two 94-vote deletion readings on 6 October.

The previous rotation, more than a thousand soldiers, left in June without replacement, after the Pentagon confirmed on 1 May that roughly 5,000 troops would leave Germany and the armoured brigade rotation to Poland was cancelled. Stars and Stripes reports that a brigade of the 1st Infantry Division is heading to Europe to replace a brigade completing its tour, and that Lithuania's battalion has typically been drawn from the brigade based in Poland; the Pentagon had not confirmed the Lithuanian deployment on Tuesday. Neither Kaunas nor the paper names the battalions.

In Des Moines on Tuesday evening, Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, gave Lithuania as his example of the alliance working: Germany "putting a tank brigade and manning that tank brigade and putting the Leopard tanks in Lithuania. I mean, that's the real result of the work we're doing and what a more European NATO looks like." Mark Rutte, beside him, said Europeans taking "a bigger share of the responsibility, more senior roles" does not mean "the US leaving the conventional defence of Europe".

Poland's Operational Command said a Mi-8 of the Russian armed forces entered Polish airspace at 11:08 on Wednesday north of Braniewo, in the Warmian-Masurian voivodeship: "The helicopter was flying from the Kaliningrad region. It violated Polish airspace to a maximum depth of about 300 metres and remained in it for 42 seconds." Radar tracked the flight, fighters were scrambled and ground-based air defence stood by. Lieutenant Colonel Jacek Goryszewski, the command's spokesman: "Russia is once again testing the readiness of our air defence." No diplomatic note had been announced by the evening.

On Tuesday evening Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the defence minister, reported an Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft intercepted about 40 kilometres off the Polish coast, after intercepts 40 kilometres north of Ustka at the start of September and 30 kilometres north of Łeba on 31 August: "Russia regularly tests NATO's eastern flank. Today again over the Baltic. These are not isolated incidents but an element of constant pressure." Overnight into Wednesday, Polish and Romanian fighters flew during Russia's jet-drone attack on western Ukraine; both commands reported no violation of their airspace.

After 40 minutes with Donald Trump on Tuesday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters: "We don't want to go into details — we are ready for energy ceasefire." The terms: "If they don't want us to attack their diesel and refineries … we are ready – if they will not attack our energy system, our electricity, heating system, water supplies." Ukraine backs "a total ceasefire on all energy infrastructure, including oil and diesel refineries", if Russia does the same; it has received no one-sided instruction to stop. "We are very thankful to American side. They will share it with Russians." Trump: "I think we're gonna make a deal, and I don't want to say what the deal is." Zelenskyy also said Russia is "preparing a new massive attack against Ukraine".

He asked for Patriot interceptors from US stocks for this winter and offered to swap for them future deliveries under Ukraine's agreement with Germany; he called it "a good step" that the idea was not rejected, and said Trump had not agreed. The German rounds are the 600 PAC-2 over 2027–28 that Zelenskyy attributed to Chancellor Merz on 24 August and that Berlin has not confirmed in any document since. The production licence he raised, he said, "is for the future".

Sergei Lavrov, at the Security Council on Wednesday after about an hour with Marco Rubio: "Having learned from bitter experience, we will not pause the special military operation during negotiations in any format." Russia, he said, is ready for talks toward a "just peace". Rubio invited Vladimir Putin to the G20 in Miami in December and, Meduza reports, called an energy ceasefire a difficult task Washington would pursue. Overnight Russia flew 161 Shahed-type drones at Ukraine, 82 of them jet-powered, with Banderol cruise missiles; the air force counted 119 downed by 08:00 and hits at 18 locations. Vitali Klitschko, Kyiv's mayor, reported two killed and at least 43 injured by 17:00, with petrol stations, warehouses, a business centre and the Shayba railway market hit across four districts. Ukraine's general staff reported strikes on drone command posts and a depot of Russia's Rubikon unit in Donetsk oblast; no refinery is in its report for the night.

The Council adopted the renewal by written procedure on Tuesday evening, Reuters and Agence Europe report: more than 3,000 listings run to 22 September 2029, Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman off the list, Latvia and Estonia abstaining. The Council's own release, issued at 18:45, names no one: three individuals and one entity not renewed, three deceased persons removed. The Irish presidency: "Maintaining this regime is the result of a difficult compromise." Latvia's cabinet the same evening issued an order under its national sanctions law, in force on signature: an entry and transit ban on both men and a freeze of all funds and economic resources they own, which they must declare to the Financial Intelligence Service within six weeks. Margus Tsahkna, Estonia's foreign minister, said Estonia had abstained on the decision: "Estonia will therefore impose national sanctions on Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman." Andris Kulbergs, Latvia's prime minister, to Euronews: "one by one cherry-picking out of sanctions, that is not the way to go. That is normalising Russia."

On Wednesday morning Ilham Aliyev pardoned Martin Ryan by decree, France 24 reports: arrested on 4 December 2023, sentenced on 16 March to ten years for espionage. Anass Derraz, sentenced to twelve years in November 2025, is not in the decree. Diplomatic sources told Reuters that Ryan was on his way to Paris on Wednesday morning, the head of France's external intelligence service having travelled to Azerbaijan to bring him back; Pascal Confavreux, the foreign ministry's spokesman, called the pardon the result of "a patient and rigorous dialogue with the Azerbaijani authorities, a dialogue we intend to continue and which marks a step toward the normalisation of our relations", and Jean-Noël Barrot met his Azerbaijani counterpart in New York. Baku denies any pressure; three diplomats told Reuters that Paris had privately justified its request on Usmanov by Azerbaijan's tying the two men's fate to his. Agence Europe: the EU is preparing listings of 1,600 persons and entities linked to Russia's military-industrial complex for adoption at the Council on 12 October.