Signal No. 127 · Compass Call, west of Kaliningrad

From about 09:00 CEST on Tuesday, flight-tracking data showed a NATO E-3A Sentry (LX-N90453, callsign NATO02) on station over northern Poland — near Gdańsk at roughly 9.5 kilometres altitude, according to a European air-traffic source quoted by TASS. A second E-3A (NATO03) held between Hamburg and Hanover. A US Air Force EA-37B Compass Call (19-5591, SHOCK55) flew from Souda Bay in Crete to Powidz, then held an orbit over northern Poland west of the Kaliningrad region for about two hours before returning to Crete, per Itamilradar. A US Army ARTEMIS II — a Leidos-operated Bombardier Challenger 650 signals-intelligence aircraft, N159L, BRIO66 — flew from Constanța. Tankers, per Itamilradar: a US KC-135R (59-1475), the NATO Multinational MRTT Unit's A330s T-056 and T-062, and an Italian KC-767A; Interia counted three KC-135s and two MRTTs. US AH-64E Apaches, Polish G550s, a Lithuanian L-410 and a US C-40A were also tracked; a Royal Air Force P-8A and a German aircraft orbited the Skagerrak for hours. Polish media and open-source accounts put US and Norwegian F-35As among the fighters; types and numbers were not published. Militarnyi counted about 25 transponding aircraft; analyst Jarosław Wolski estimated more than 50 in the air, most combat aircraft flying with transponders off. Apart from the official statements in the next paragraph, this account is ADS-B-derived.

Poland's Operational Command (DORSZ) said at midday that the heightened allied air activity over Poland "results from planned NATO exercises," previously scheduled and "directly coordinated by NATO," and was "not connected with, for instance, the activity of the Russian Federation's long-range aviation" (spokesman Lt Col Jacek Goryszewski, via TVN24). Such exercises, it said, "take place from time to time and are intended to increase the interoperability of aviation within the Alliance and to practise various variants of air and combined operations" (Defence24). NATO's statement, from SHAPE spokesman Colonel Martin O'Donnell: "NATO is a defensive Alliance and Allies are constantly honing their defensive abilities. The Allied activity today on 18 Aug 26 in the Baltic region involving U.S. and Norwegian fighters, Polish ground forces, NATO's E-3A AWACS and others, overseen by the U.S., is an example of that." No further detail, "for operational security": no exercise name, no scale, no numbers. Lithuania's armed forces said on Tuesday evening that nothing unusual was being recorded in Lithuania or neighbouring countries and that monitoring of the Kaliningrad region showed "no suspicious or concerning signs" (15min). Moscow's only public output by Wednesday evening was the TASS item on the three reconnaissance and electronic-warfare aircraft — sourced to "EU air traffic services," describing Compass Call flights as "very rare in the area." No defence ministry or Kremlin statement was found.

The composition is the content. The E-3A supplies the air picture and airborne command and control; the EA-37B is the US Air Force's new electromagnetic-attack aircraft, a Gulfstream G550 carrying the Compass Call system to detect, characterise and disrupt hostile communications and radar-linked networks (Itamilradar). The service has five in hand against ten ordered, and two further aircraft are on order for Italy (t-online). ARTEMIS II is a high-altitude signals-collection platform; the tankers give the package endurance; the fighters provide the combat-air component, and the public record does not establish their assigned role. That combination is compatible with rehearsing the enabling sequence required to suppress or destroy air defences in a dense environment. Neither NATO nor Poland has said such a mission was exercised; Warsaw's word was interoperability. One archived indicator of the electromagnetic environment: in May Lithuania's regulator counted 36 GPS-spoofing antennae operating from Kaliningrad, up from three in early 2025, with a 450-kilometre reach (Signal No. 68) — evidence of the environment, not of a mission. The EA-37B's recent path runs through the Iran war: the type flew from RAF Mildenhall to the Middle East in early April, and two aircraft arrived at Souda Bay from RAF Fairford on 25 July (Itamilradar). Tuesday's sortie used an aircraft type also recently committed to Middle East operations, staged from a base within reach of both theatres.

Bild reported on Monday that it had seen a "NATO Land Warfighting Concept" for a Russian attack on the Baltic states, structured in three phases, per t-online and Defence24's accounts of the report: first, fighters, drones and missiles disable Russian missile launchers and air defences, "primarily in the Kaliningrad Region," where much of the relevant capacity sits; second, an "autonomous combat zone" along the borders with Russia and Belarus in which only uncrewed systems operate, to detect and destroy advancing equipment without NATO soldiers forward; third, counter-strikes on military infrastructure in the Russian rear — airfields, arms plants, bridges and rail nodes — with the stated aim of halting and pushing back, not occupying. Bild names a US Army major, Andrew Pingray, as lead author. On Tuesday evening deputy defence minister Cezary Tomczyk told Defence24 that the alliance updates contingency plans regularly on the Ukraine war's lessons and that "these plans do not exclude strikes deep into Russian territory." He said the drone zone is meant "to reduce the burden on soldiers through the mass deployment of uncrewed forces." Großwald has not seen the document; the phase structure above is Bild's account as relayed.

Parliament on Wednesday confirmed Major General Yevhen Khmara as defence minister with 312 votes, after a unanimous committee vote in the morning; the Rada had recessed on 18 July with Khmara acting (Signal No. 105). Reuters describes him as a former top special-forces operative, "best known as the mastermind of Ukraine's deep strikes into Russia," who briefly served as acting head of the SBU and was named acting minister as a placeholder after the July protests; Kyiv Independent adds the Alpha special-operations centre and the 2022 Snake Island operation. It is his first government post; his two immediate predecessors each lasted barely half a year. President Zelenskyy said he brings experience in "technological strike operations" and that long-range capability is the priority; Mariana Bezuhla, a lawmaker from the presidential faction, per Reuters, called him "the president's drone: photogenic, heroic, obedient."

The vote came hours after Mykhailo Fedorov, dismissed on 15 July, called in a video address for a "legal, safe and realistic mechanism" for elections in wartime — "democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia" — and accused the state of a "systemic crisis of governance" and corruption that hurts the war effort (Reuters); elections are prohibited under martial law, and a 5 August KIIS poll put 57 per cent against a wartime vote. The same morning anti-corruption agencies announced charges in an alleged USD 3 million laundering scheme involving a deputy head of the presidential office; Zelenskyy dismissed deputy chief of staff Iryna Mudra shortly afterwards.

The threat he inherits changed shape on Tuesday: between 07:00 and 18:00 Russia launched 76 jet-powered Shahed-type drones, 70 of which Ukrainian air defence reported intercepted, with nine alerts in Kyiv; air-force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said that "sometimes, two-thirds of all drones launched during the day are jet-powered," and that Russia launched five times as many jet-powered drones in July as in June. He gave the Geran-5's figures as up to 600 km/h, 950 kilometres and a 90-kilogramme warhead at up to 6,000 metres (Kyiv Independent). In July the jet-powered share of the Shahed flow was 15–20 per cent (Signal No. 106).

The Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing two regime insiders, that Iranian forces "have assessed striking US assets in southeastern European countries such as Bulgaria" — which last month approved Bezmer for US refuelling aircraft — that one insider also named Cyprus, and that forces have separately examined attacking subsea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz; retaliation, the insiders said, would depend on Washington's actions. One of them: "A very big mistake, such as hitting our infrastructure, could make the war go beyond the region and reach Europe." US European Command told Stars and Stripes it was aware of the reporting and would take "appropriate actions." Bezmer air base, in south-eastern Bulgaria, hosts up to eight KC-135 tankers and up to 250 US personnel from 31 July to 1 October (Stars and Stripes); Tehran warned Sofia against the deployment on 21 July, calling it complicity in "aggression" (Signal No. 106). In Athens, Kathimerini reported that the defence ministry is examining moving the Patriot battery stationed on Karpathos since March to Souda Bay, where the Greek military assesses the threat to the naval base as significant. A second battery could go to northern Greece if Bulgaria renews its spring request for air-defence support; Greece keeps its channel to Tehran open and does not consider itself under heightened threat (via Militarnyi). Souda is where Tuesday's EA-37B staged from.

Hanwha Defense USA announced on Tuesday evening a US Army contract for six K9 Mobile Howitzer prototypes — a wheeled variant of the K9 with the automatic turret on an 8×8 truck — with an option for 12 more, integrated and tested at Opelika, Alabama; the company calls it its first major US Army award and says more than 2,500 K9s are fielded worldwide. The Army put the deal at up to USD 262.9 million and said soldier testing "will inform whether to field the system," which if approved would replace towed M777s in selected units (Reuters); Hartpunkt puts the base award at about USD 100 million over four years; the candidates evaluated since late 2024 were BAE Systems' Archer, KNDS France's CAESAR, Rheinmetall's RCH 155 and Elbit's Sigma.