Signal No. 181 · GCAP: Germany presses for a quick answer on its terms
Germany's defence minister wants it settled quickly whether Britain, Italy and Japan will take Germany into GCAP, and on what terms. Merz receives Zelenskyy in Berlin and sets the Coalition of the Willing summit for 19 November.
AIRDINDEZ Pistorius wants it settled quickly whether Britain, Italy and Japan will take Germany into GCAP, and on what terms
hartpunkt 2 Nov, Pistorius and Streeting · GOV.UK 2 Nov, UK–Germany joint statement · Federal Government, Aviation Strategy (Bundestag Drucksache 21/6450), Box 2 · Japan Ministry of Defense, GCAP joint statement, Nov 2024 · Reuters 21 Jul, GCAP timeline · Janes 21 Jul, GCAP engine · Reuters 28 Oct, Airbus · Großwald dispatch 11 Jun, Team Gen 6 · Signal No. 163 · Signal No. 178
Boris Pistorius, Germany's defence minister, said in Berlin on Monday that the question should be settled quickly: whether Britain, Italy and Japan will take Germany into GCAP, their fighter programme, and on what terms. The three needed five years of negotiation to reach the programme's current contract status, he said. Time is now critical, because the new capability must be ready in the early 2040s; another five years of talks on German participation is not possible. "We have held first talks on this. I will shortly hold further talks with Guido Crosetto and my Japanese counterpart," he said. Those talks, with Italy's and Japan's defence ministers, are due in the coming days or weeks, with workshare on the agenda. "And then we will take the next steps, or not."
He spoke at a press conference after the second ministerial council under the British–German Trinity House Agreement. Wes Streeting, the British defence secretary, said Britain is open to German participation but will decide it jointly with Italy and Japan: "we want to understand what requirements Germany has and see whether there can be synergies."
On 8 October Andy Burnham, the British prime minister, told Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, of Britain's openness to Germany joining; government sources told dpa this was "neither a decision nor a pre-decision". In Tokyo on 28 October Merz said Japan wanted a German decision at the start of the new year, and that he could not promise it.
The other route is German-led. In June eight German companies, among them Airbus Defence and Space, Hensoldt and MTU Aero Engines, asked as Team Gen 6 that contracts for a German-led fighter come "fully and on time" in the second half of this year. On 28 October Airbus said it is working closely with the German and Spanish governments on a next-generation European fighter; Guillaume Faury, its chief executive, said Germany is reaching out to other governments, with GCAP a clear potential partner, by Reuters' account.
Signal › Germany's terms are already in writing. The aviation strategy the cabinet adopted in June puts the crewed fighter in service from 2040 and makes a major role for German industry in its development a precondition. Germany's interests, it says, include a significant share in concept, development and production, "from the flying platforms to propulsion and critical subsystems", matched in quality and quantity to Germany's financial contribution. GCAP's partners hold to a 2035 in-service date, and Rolls-Royce, Avio Aero and IHI are developing its engine: propulsion, which the strategy names among Germany's interests, has no German partner in GCAP.
DIPIAMDDEZ Zelenskyy in Berlin: Merz sets the Coalition of the Willing summit for 19 November and wants every ally to meet the EUR 70 billion pledged for 2026
Berliner Morgenpost 3 Nov, Merz and Zelenskyy (dpa/AFP) · Deutschlandfunk 3 Nov, Merz and Zelenskyy · NZZ 3 Nov, Merz and Zelenskyy · Kyiv Independent 3 Nov, Zelenskyy in Berlin · Glavnoe 3 Nov, Zelenskyy's account · Meduza 27 Oct, Oleshky ceasefire · Signal No. 170 · Signal No. 171
Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to Berlin on Tuesday, unannounced for security reasons, and met Friedrich Merz at the chancellery. Merz said Germany would continue its support until the war ends, but "all Europeans bear responsibility, not only the Germans". NATO allies had agreed on EUR 70 billion of military support for Ukraine in 2026, he said: "We must also make sure that all partners meet this commitment." The Coalition of the Willing meets in Berlin on 19 November. Germany is adding a further EUR 200 million of winter aid, about half of it from the Foreign Office budget, by dpa's account.
Zelenskyy said the talks covered further PAC-2, PAC-3 and IRIS-T missiles, new support for Ukraine's F-16s and a German winter package; no quantities were given. Merz said the local ceasefire in Oleshky, a six-day pause from 27 October to 1 November to evacuate civilians and bring in aid, could be a model for a wider one.
Signal › Of the three missiles Zelenskyy named, IRIS-T is the one built in Germany, by Diehl. The Patriot rounds need US consent to leave a European stock: Germany's ten GEM-T missiles went through a State Department notification in August, and the Washington Post reported in October that Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, had not approved transfers, some of them from allies' own stocks.
INTRUCPLB Coalition of the Willing: Exercise Koalicja, 2,800 troops from 11 nations in Poland from 9 to 22 November
GOV.UK 3 Nov, Exercise Koalicja · Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, implementation of the Montreux Convention · Signal No. 176
Britain and France will jointly lead Exercise Koalicja for the Multinational Force Ukraine, the Coalition of the Willing's military arm, the Ministry of Defence announced on Tuesday. From 9 to 22 November it will test how to move, protect and supply a force that would help rebuild Ukraine's armed forces once the fighting ends. Of the 2,800 troops, 300 are British, among them soldiers of 7 Brigade; Britain also sends RAF Typhoons and a Voyager tanker. The 11 nations are Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye and Britain.
The force would move into Ukraine only after the fighting stops and at the request of Ukraine's government, the ministry says, and would not carry out peacekeeping or ceasefire-monitoring duties. Lieutenant General Tom Bateman commands the force, whose headquarters moves from Paris to London this year. Emmanuel Macron, France's president, announced Coalition of the Willing exercises in Poland in August; in October Britain and Poland announced a major one for November.
Signal › One element sits outside Poland: Turkish forces will stand up the force's maritime component in Istanbul, to test the mine clearance that would let commercial shipping return to Ukraine's ports. Under the Montreux Convention, warships of states outside the Black Sea may stay there no more than 21 days, a limit that also holds in peacetime and does not apply to Black Sea states, Türkiye among them.
GRZC4I Refrigeration attacks: Belgium's federal prosecutor opens a criminal investigation; stores in Italy and Romania hit too, VRT reports
VRT NWS liveblog 2–3 Nov · NOS 2 Nov, Danfoss
Belgium's federal prosecutor has opened a criminal investigation into the attacks on supermarket refrigeration systems, it told VRT. Coop stores run by the Radenza group in Sicily, at least three in Catania and one in Palermo, were hit too, and Italian police are examining links with the other countries; six stores in Romania were also targeted, VRT reports. The Commission held two meetings on the attacks, one of the EU's inter-institutional cybersecurity task force and one through EU-CyCLONe, the member states' network for large cyber incidents. Delhaize, Carrefour and Spar say their Belgian stores are back to normal. No perpetrator has been named.
Signal › Danfoss, the Danish refrigeration-controls maker, says it advised Dutch customers on 13 October, after the French attacks, to take the systems off the internet, and that the Dutch systems hit overnight into Monday were not on a secured network and still had their default password. On that account the Dutch attacks needed no flaw in the product, only access that had been left open.
Procurement · Industry · Capability
GRDDINARC Netherlands values its CV90 order at EUR 1.3 billion under the Swedish-led Nordic initiative
Derk Boswijk, the Dutch state secretary for defence, told parliament the order with BAE Systems Hägglunds is worth EUR 1.3 billion and includes spare parts, tools, ammunition and communications equipment; the vehicles equip a new mechanised infantry battalion in 13 Light Brigade. Last week the ministry announced the buy, made jointly with other countries under Swedish lead, without quantities or values. The partners are Finland, Lithuania, Norway and Ukraine; the standard is the Mk IV "Nordic Edition". The quantity is still not stated.
STKAIRARC Sweden has received Taurus cruise missiles from Bundeswehr stocks
FMV, Sweden's procurement agency, confirmed the transfer to Dagens industri; the number remains secret. At the end of August a Swedish Gripen C fired a Taurus whose markings indicated a warhead. Whether Sweden received enough for integration or an operational stock is not known. The Bundeswehr bought 600 Taurus KEPD 350 between 2005 and 2010; the missile is built by Taurus Systems, a joint venture of MBDA Deutschland and Saab.
Forward Look
This week. Wednesday 4 November: the Bundestag budget committee on seven procurement submissions (ESUT 1 Nov); the Commission hosts the US, Ukraine, NATO and European allies for a meeting on the war (CBC/AP 3 Nov). Thursday 5 November: Rheinmetall's third-quarter statement (Rheinmetall disclosure notice). By 6 November: the US posture review's option sets due to Hegseth (Großwald). The Bundeswehr is reported to be buying a small batch of Ukraine's Bars missile-drones for trials this week (Soldat & Technik 1 Nov). Euronaval runs to Friday (Team France Export).
Poland. The draft National Security Strategy is with the government; Karol Nawrocki, the president, wants it adopted urgently and sent to him (Defence24 3 Nov). Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, a deputy defence minister, expects the US decision on a permanent base after the posture review, in November or December (Portal Samorządowy/PAP 3 Nov).
Further out. 10–11 November: US–Ukraine–Russia talks in Abu Dhabi, confirmed by the Kremlin (RTÉ 3 Nov); Zelenskyy names security guarantees, an energy ceasefire and a Black Sea truce for food exports as the agenda (CBC/AP 3 Nov). 12 November: the budget committee's final session on the 2027 budget (Bundestag). 17 November: EU defence ministers (Irish Council Presidency). 19 November: the Coalition of the Willing in Berlin, Merz says (Berliner Morgenpost 3 Nov).