Signal No. 148 · Four kilometres short of Dorohusk
Poland's operational commander issued a pre-authorised order on Thursday to shoot down a fast object, probably a jet-powered drone, if it crossed the border; it came down four kilometres short, near Yahodyn, with F-16s supersonic, two airports halted and two provinces alerted.
PLBRUC Poland pre-authorises a shoot-down for a fast object that came down four kilometres short of the border; Tusk: intelligence services assess Russia plans "accidental" strikes on Poland
WP 17 Sep · RMF24 17 Sep · Portal Obronny 17 Sep · TVN24 17 Sep · RMF24 17 Sep · Polsat News 17 Sep · Defence24 17 Sep · RMF24 17 Sep · Ukrainska Pravda 17 Sep · TVN24 15 Sep · Rzeczpospolita 14 Nov 2025 · Signal No. 145 · Signal No. 143 · Signal No. 113
Poland's Operational Command said late on Thursday morning that military aviation had begun operating in Polish airspace "in connection with strikes carried out by the Russian Federation using jet-powered unmanned aircraft on the western territory of Ukraine"; at 12:46 it reported the operation over and "no violation of the airspace of the Republic of Poland". Lieutenant Colonel Jacek Goryszewski, its spokesman, said on television the trigger was a single object: "We had an object that was approaching our border very quickly", reported by the Ukrainian side and then tracked by Polish radar stations, "certainly not an ordinary unmanned aircraft", and still to be confirmed as a jet-powered drone "or some kind of missile".
Cezary Tomczyk, the deputy defence minister, spoke to reporters in the Sejm. There was no crossing of the border, and the strike was "probably by a jet drone, four kilometres from the border with Poland, probably on a petrol station". The operational commander, he said, "issued an order to shoot down in the event of the state border being crossed", and it was "an order with pre-authorisation: the pilot no longer has to confirm with the operational commander that the object is in range and whether he can fire, but can bring down such a drone or missile automatically once it is detected". The booms heard on the ground were Polish F-16s "exceeding the speed of sound, flying to meet these drones".
Asked whether visual identification still makes sense against jet drones, he said "identification in peacetime is absolutely necessary", citing the risk of bringing down a civil aircraft. Asked whether Poland would engage over Ukrainian territory, he said that "can only be settled at the level of the whole North Atlantic Alliance", and that without full acceptance there "we will certainly not go further".
Residents of Lublin and Podkarpackie provinces received government alerts of a threat of air attack. Lublin and Rzeszów airports suspended operations for a time. Donald Tusk said: "Very close to the Polish border, not far from Ukrainian Yahodyn near Dorohusk, a petrol station was probably attacked again. There was a very massive explosion." The earlier attack was on Sunday 13 September, when drones hit a filling station about 800 metres from the crossing and a Kyiv–Warsaw locomotive at Yahodyn station, part of a dawn wave Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz put at a dozen or more jet-powered Geran-5, with F-16s in the air. In the early hours of Tuesday fighters went up again for jet drones over western Ukraine, with alerts to the same two provinces.
Later on Thursday Tusk gave the Sejm what he called "the most probable scenario for the next few months", with late autumn and winter "the most critical moment" of the war so far. The "one change, of a very negative kind" was that "the Russians are introducing on a mass scale a new type of drone, jet drones, moving at incomparably greater speed and operating at high altitude before they descend and strike the target". And: "in the assessment of the intelligence services, the Russian plan also includes hybrid strikes with drones and missiles on states supporting Ukraine, including Poland". Such strikes would have an "in inverted commas, accidental" character; "there is a real risk that drones may fly into the territory of one or several NATO states on the eastern flank". The information, he said, is "now very consistent and, unfortunately, convincing". He named no service. He said 23 of 28 planned HESCO-bastion shelters have been built at the crossings with Ukraine, Dorohusk among them, and spoke of deploying air defence at six border crossings.
Ukraine's air force said earlier this month that the jet type cannot be brought down with machine guns or conventional interceptor drones, and put its interception rate at slightly over 60 per cent against more than 90 for the propeller type; Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on Thursday a successful interceptor test against a jet-powered Shahed.
Signal › Pre-authorisation is not new. General Maciej Klisz, then operational commander, told Rzeczpospolita last November that pilots can be authorised in advance to fire in Polish airspace and were on 10 September 2025, though every engagement that night was still approved on his order. On 30 July General Ireneusz Nowak, in the same post, said he was "ready the whole time to give the order" against a Kh-101 that flew about 100 kilometres into Lublin province; none was given. On Thursday, on Tomczyk's account, the order went out before anything crossed, for an object that never did. He named one condition, the border line, and separately insisted on identification in peacetime; he did not say how that sits with fire "automatically once detected". It was the third time in five days that jet drones in western Ukraine put Polish fighters in the air.
AIRINT Germany sends four Eurofighters to Lielvārde for the week of Latvia's 3 October election, at Riga's request after repeated drone violations
The defence ministry said on Wednesday that four Eurofighters of Tactical Air Wing 74 from Neuburg, with a contingent in the mid double digits, will fly from Lielvārde air base for about a week from late September to early October, covering Latvia's parliamentary election. Latvia asked for the support, the ministry says, because of "repeated airspace violations with UAVs/drones over the Baltic countries in recent weeks and months". The aircraft fly under NATO's enhanced Air Policing North, under the Combined Air Operations Centre at Uedem. The release also sets the next rotation at Ämari in Estonia: five Eurofighters and about 120 personnel of Tactical Air Wing 71 from Wittmund, December 2026 to March 2027, the Luftwaffe's seventh contingent there. An Italian Eurofighter on Baltic Air Policing shot down a drone over Latvia's Balvi municipality on the night to 14 August.
Signal › Riga's request went to its allies and cites drones, and Berlin's answer is sized to the vote: four aircraft for about a week. The ministry describes the task as quick-reaction flights "to identify possible threats and to show presence and vigilance".
UXSDIN London awards Tekever the Watchkeeper replacement: six AR5 aircraft, up to 24 by 2029, under a GBP 400 million ceiling; no in-service date given
GOV.UK 16 Sep · AeroTime 27 Jul · Großwald 25 Jul
The Ministry of Defence said on Wednesday it had awarded Tekever the contract for the British Army's long-endurance surveillance drone, worth up to GBP 400 million: an initial order of six AR5 aircraft, rising to as many as 24 by 2029, built at a new Tekever factory in Swindon and carrying up to 50 kilograms of cameras and sensors. A second award the same day, GBP 16 million, buys more than 1,025 small drones: 245 FOXE-NATO from Evolve Dynamics, 670 Skydio X10 through Marlborough Communications, and 110 SONORA from Brigantes and Harmattan AI.
The ministry named the AR5 on 25 July. Its transparency notice that month recorded that the Project Corvus competition closed on 13 February with eight responses, that none was judged suitable, and that it would award to Tekever without a further competition, with signature no earlier than 31 August.
Signal › July's announcement put the AR5's entry into service later in 2026, subject to signature; Wednesday's gives no date. Trade reporting of the July procurement documents has Watchkeeper's out-of-service date pushed back to March 2027.
RUCDIP Ukraine hits the 300,000-barrel-a-day Yaroslavl refinery three days after Trump announced a halt to energy strikes; neither side has confirmed an agreement
Reuters via Cyprus Mail 17 Sep · The Moscow Times 17 Sep · The Moscow Times 16 Sep · Reuters via Yahoo 15 Sep · Interfax-Ukraine 15 Sep · Signal No. 146
Ukrainian drones struck the Slavneft-Yanos refinery overnight, a plant of about 15 million tonnes a year jointly controlled by Rosneft and Gazprom Neft; the regional governor said "there's damage to the oil refinery" and the fire was out by morning. Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the strike and said three transport aircraft and three helicopters were hit at an airfield in Rostov region. On industry data cited by Reuters, half of Russia's six largest diesel-producing refineries have significantly reduced or halted output in September, and its industry sources said on Wednesday that Syzran's main crude unit, 71 per cent of the plant's capacity, could take at least a month to repair. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv has confirmed the agreement Donald Trump announced on Monday; the conditions Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, set on Tuesday were tanker passage and sanctions relief, Zelenskyy's were American guarantees, no time limit and a wider scope.
Signal › Zelenskyy confirmed the strike in his own name, three days after Trump's announcement. Industry sources told Reuters that an attack on 28 August had already halted two of Yaroslavl's three crude distillation units. Syzran halted on Tuesday, on industry sources; Kyiv's refinery campaign has run through the announcement.
GRZDIN Latvia's security service opens a terrorism case over threats against arms makers supplying Ukraine; one person in custody; the same demands went to Poland and Portugal
The State Security Service said on Thursday it opened proceedings on 9 September, a day after a group it describes as pro-Kremlin, calling itself "Global Citizens Against War 1984", demanded that Latvia "cease supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine" and threatened "terrorist acts against specific Latvian companies that manufacture and supply arms to Ukraine". The ultimatum made identical demands of Poland and Portugal and threatened companies there. One person was detained in Riga on 10 September and remanded.
Signal › One ultimatum made the same demand of three states and threatened companies in each; Latvia opened a terrorism case the next day, detained a suspect the day after, and announced both on Thursday. On 26 August Slovak authorities foiled an arson plot against Skyeton's Raybird drone plant at Haniska, and named no sponsor.
Procurement · Industry · Capability
SEADIN TKMS Atlas UK wins the Royal Navy's Next Generation Countermeasure, the torpedo defence for current and future submarines; Babcock integrates; value confidential
The Ministry of Defence has awarded TKMS Atlas UK, the British subsidiary of the Kiel group, the Next Generation Countermeasure contract, the company said on Thursday: the torpedo-defence element of the Underwater Defensive Aids Suite for the Royal Navy's current and future submarine classes, developed iteratively to allow later upgrades. Babcock supplies the launchers and platform integration, and the programme supports 80 jobs in the United Kingdom. The value is confidential, and no in-service date is given.
AIRSEADIN Babcock: preferred bidder for French Air Force combat flight training, and a six-month bridge on Royal Navy base support
Babcock's trading update for its annual meeting on Wednesday lists its selection as preferred bidder for an eight-year contract supporting operational combat flight training for the French Air Force, which it calls its first combat flight training work for France. The Future Maritime Support Programme, which covers Royal Navy bases and the submarine fleet, continues on a six-month bridging agreement while, in the company's words, the long-term "Gateway" support agreement is finalised. Guidance is unchanged.
GRDINT IISS: European land forces "not yet the conventional backbone NATO needs"; gaps "unlikely to close before 2030"
The International Institute for Strategic Studies published its Strategic Dossier "The Defence of Europe in a New Era" on Wednesday. The land-forces chapter finds: "Europe's land forces are improving, but unevenly, belatedly and from a low base. The central risk is a capability–time mismatch." The gaps it lists are personnel, artillery, air defence, ammunition, sustainment and readiness; Poland is "the clearest exception", with personnel, armour and artillery all expanding. On the eastern flank the shortfalls are fuel distribution, medical evacuation, rail transport for heavy armour and mobile bridging. The assessment follows the withdrawal of 5,000 US personnel from Germany, the cancelled long-range fires battalion and the ended US Army brigade rotation in Poland.
ARCSEAUXS Finland and Sweden explore buying uncrewed surface vessels jointly; a Swedish Visby-class corvette goes under Finnish command in the Gulf of Finland
Tuomas Tiilikainen, commander of the Finnish Navy, said after meeting his Swedish counterpart at Suomenlinna on Wednesday: "At this point, it's probably the case that we will jointly procure this kind of capacity for our use and share that resource with each other temporarily." He described "a surface drone that looks like a sailboat", carrying a few sensors, which could patrol Finnish waters before the end of the year. No supplier, number or budget was given. A Swedish Visby-class corvette will deploy to the Gulf of Finland in the coming weeks for a short operation and, Yle reports, will be under Finnish Defence Forces command for its duration, so that Finland can "concentrate our own capability on the southeastern corner".
Forward Look
Friday 18 September, Fort Worth, Bonn, St Petersburg: Pistorius is handed the first German F-35 at Lockheed Martin; Russia's consulate-general in Bonn and Germany's in St Petersburg close; the Pentagon's Europe posture review owes its decision briefing by this date, on the terms of reference Reuters saw in August, with the option sets due to Hegseth by 6 November; the Belarusian Western Operational Command exercise ends; the Duma vote runs Friday to Sunday.
Week ahead: the seven-day bridge on the EU's Russia sanctions listings expires at midnight on Tuesday 22 September; the Commission's Arctic strategy and the SAFE spending report in October; applications for the DGA's surface-drone competition close on 15 October.
Monday 28 September: the Foreign Affairs Council in its defence format is due to adopt the implementing decision establishing the first European Defence Projects of Common Interest, which member states' ambassadors approved on Wednesday: air defence, maritime security, space, drones and counter-drone, and Eastern Flank Watch, the five the Commission named on 3 July.
End of October, Montreal: the EU–Canada summit, after Mark Carney told the European Parliament on Thursday that Canada "welcomes this ambition" of becoming the Union's first associate member, a status von der Leyen proposed on Wednesday.
Watch: the type of Thursday's object at Yahodyn, and whether Warsaw publishes the terms of the pre-authorised order; the first AR5 in British Army service before March 2027; signature of Babcock's Gateway agreement on naval base support; a DSCA notification for the Typhon launchers; the engine identification of the Kaišiadorys drone and the joint Polish–Lithuanian finding; FMV's HIMARS contract signature.
