Signal No. 183 · Rheinmetall cuts 2026 forecast to EUR 13.2 billion

Rheinmetall cut its 2026 forecast on Wednesday evening: sales of about EUR 13.2 billion instead of EUR 13.7–14.2 billion, and an operating margin of about 18.5 per cent instead of about 19. It gives two reasons. Arminius, the Bundeswehr's Boxer project, "is in the final phase of negotiations and cannot be commissioned until next year", and the acceptance of production lots of artillery ammunition is expected to run late. The range it replaces was itself lowered in August by EUR 300 million, which Rheinmetall put down to the cancelled F126 frigate. The shares fell more than 18 per cent at one point on Thursday.

Klaus Neumann, the chief financial officer, told analysts the delays came solely from processes on the customer's side and that he expects Arminius in the first quarter of 2027, dpa-AFX reports. German trade press had reported on Monday that the order would slip to February.

In the third quarter, order intake was EUR 2.89 billion against sales of EUR 3.15 billion, Reuters reports. In the first half, nomination, Rheinmetall's measure of new orders plus the volume of new framework contracts, was EUR 16.2 billion, more than three times sales. Operating free cash flow was EUR 1.6 billion negative at the half and EUR 1.7 billion negative after nine months, so the quarter added only about EUR 80 million to the outflow; Rheinmetall attributes the outflow to inventory built for the growth it expects. Nomination in Weapon and Ammunition, the segment that makes the artillery ammunition, is 6 per cent below the same nine months last year.

Nine-month sales rose 38 per cent to EUR 8.4 billion, 41.3 per cent of them in Germany. Rheinmetall's backlog, which counts expected call-offs under framework contracts as well as firm orders, stood at EUR 78.0 billion at the end of September, against EUR 56.7 billion a year earlier and EUR 80.5 billion at the end of June. Rheinmetall will give its view of 2027 and its medium-term targets at a capital markets day on 26 and 27 November.

Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, has chosen Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, inspector of the Army, as the next Generalinspekteur, the Bundeswehr's highest-ranking soldier, the ministry said on Thursday. He takes over from General Carsten Breuer in February 2027. Breuer was elected in September to chair NATO's Military Committee and takes up that post in summer 2027. Freuding led the ministry's Ukraine special staff from 2022 and its planning and command staff from 2023 to 2025, and has commanded the Army since October 2025. Pistorius credited him with setting up the Army's first drone regiment. The ministry's statement names no successor at the head of the Army.

Bomb threats against at least 14 flights forced diversions and searches across Europe on Thursday, the third day of threats this week, Euronews reports, putting the week's count above 20. No explosives were found. An Italian Air Force fighter escorted a Finnair flight from Helsinki to Rome; French fighters guided an Aer Lingus Dublin–Rome flight to the Évreux air base, where the French prime minister's office said 151 passengers and six crew were moved to safety; the Bulgarian Air Force escorted three Ryanair aircraft bound for Sofia, one of which landed at Plovdiv. In Prague the threats arrived by email from anonymous addresses, the airport told AFP, and the Czech counter-terrorism and cybercrime centre has taken over the investigation there. The email sent to Fiumicino named the Finnair and Aer Lingus flights and said explosives on board would go off within 60 minutes; Il Messaggero, which printed its text, reports it was signed by "fighters of the Male State". Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the EU transport commissioner, wrote on X that it was "too early to draw conclusions on whether the reported incidents are linked".