Signal No. 185 · Abu Dhabi talks: the EU sends a team

Europeans will be present at the US–Ukraine–Russia talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday. The European Commission and the European Council are sending a joint team of senior officials led by Björn Seibert, Ursula von der Leyen's head of cabinet, and Anna-Maria Boura, chief foreign-policy adviser to António Costa, Euronews reports. France, Germany and Britain will attend at national security adviser level, and Italy will take part; a NATO official said the Alliance would be represented by its chief of staff, Geoffrey Van Leeuwen. "The EU will be present alongside our partners," von der Leyen said on Monday after a call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Jean-Noël Barrot, the French foreign minister, said on Sunday that "France will be in Abu Dhabi", without naming who would go. On Thursday Jared Kushner's post had said Washington would consult European partners "on the sidelines" and aim for a broader format "if progress is made".

What the Europeans will do there is not settled. A senior EU diplomat told the Kyiv Independent that the exact format remained "unclear". Rustem Umerov, who leads Ukraine's delegation, wrote on Telegram that representatives of Britain, France, Germany and Italy, of NATO and of the European Commission would be in Abu Dhabi on the same days: "We will hold separate coordination meetings with our European partners." Both EU institutions are willing to meet the Russian delegation directly, which has not happened in these talks, but whether they will is unclear, Euronews reports. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, told reporters: "What will happen in Abu Dhabi in the coming days is trilateral negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the United States of America." The Americans and the Ukrainians have their own channels to the Europeans, he said, and "are apparently building their own coordination mechanism". Vladimir Medinsky leads the Russian delegation, with the deputy foreign ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin.

Paula Pinho, the Commission's chief spokesperson, said on Monday that "any European security framework is up to the European Union to decide, because it's a matter of its competence". Kushner said a lasting settlement "will also require direct engagement between Russia and our European partners on the broader security arrangements that affect them". Poland is not among the governments named as attending. Radosław Sikorski, its foreign minister, said: "The last thing we want is Western Europe dealing with Russia, over the heads of the East Europeans."

Koalicja 2026, the first exercise of the multinational force the Coalition of the Willing has formed to secure a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, began in Poland on Monday and runs until 22 November, with about 2,800 troops from 11 countries, dpa reports. It also uses the airspace over Romania and the western Black Sea, and Turkish forces are to rehearse mine clearance from Istanbul. France and Britain lead. France sends about 1,000 soldiers with short-range surveillance drones and counter-drone systems, Britain about 300 personnel and several combat aircraft, which are to practise protecting civil air traffic once Ukraine's airspace reopens. Belgium, Estonia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden also take part. The exercise simulates moving troops and supplies such as food and fuel, according to British sources.

Germany contributes about ten staff officers, up to two A400M aircraft for air-to-air refuelling, which operate from Germany, and logistic support for troops crossing the country, according to the defence ministry. In July Friedrich Merz said the government and the Bundestag would decide the type and scope of Germany's contribution to the force itself. Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia's Security Council, said the exercises were "rather offensive in nature", Interfax reported. Merz has invited the coalition to meet in Berlin on 19 November.

Germany cannot for now supply Ukraine with more Patriot air-defence systems from Bundeswehr stocks, Boris Pistorius told the Berliner Morgenpost in an interview published on Saturday, the Berliner Zeitung reports. Germany has already handed over several Patriot systems and numerous interceptors, he said: "Anything we give now we would not get replaced for the time being; that would tear gaps here that we cannot answer for. More is not possible right now." Other NATO partners must now contribute more, and the question must be discussed at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group in mid-November, he said. In September Germany pledged further PAC-2 interceptors from Bundeswehr stocks, and the Berliner Zeitung reads the statement as no full stop to German air-defence aid.

Ukraine's defence minister, Yevhen Khmara, had asked Germany, Britain, France, Poland and Italy to consider handing over 10 per cent of their interceptor stocks now, Patriot and IRIS-T missiles among them, against later deliveries Ukraine is contracting under the EU loan. On 2 November Germany ordered two Patriot fire units to replace those it gave Ukraine. Zelenskyy says Ukraine has received on average 12 Patriot missiles a month this year.

Rheinmetall has signed a contract to supply Belgium with 20 Skyranger 30 air-defence guns on hooklift platforms, for the stationary protection of Belgian territory and critical infrastructure, the company said on Monday. It puts the value, including logistics, in the mid three-digit millions of euros; deliveries begin at the end of 2028. The same day the 51st Squadron was reactivated at Beauvechain air base, Theo Francken, the defence minister, announced, OPEX360 reports; it moves to Ursel in 2032. Formed in 1959 to operate Nike Hercules missiles, the squadron was disbanded around the fall of the Berlin Wall, which ended Belgium's ground-based air defence.

Both steps belong to Blue Dome, a programme of just over EUR 3.1 billion to rebuild that capability. In September Kongsberg signed NOK 10 billion of NASAMS for Belgium through the Dutch procurement agency; a first battery is to be leased in 2027. Thales supplies 14 GM200 radars and Iveco 54 command vehicles, and Francken named systems to intercept ballistic missiles as a purchase still to come. New specialists have to be trained, and the unit starts on that today, he said, "in close collaboration with our Dutch colleagues, who have bought the same systems". Rheinmetall says the procurement was run in close consultation with the Netherlands, and that the Skyranger will be integrated into Blue Dome's command-and-control architecture, with Belgian industry brought into the value chain.

The Bundeswehr had more than 190,000 soldiers in October, "all volunteers", the most since 2013, Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, told Deutschlandfunk in an interview broadcast on Sunday, Augen geradeaus reports. "We seem to be on the right path," he said, and conscription would not be needed for now. He could not be sure that volunteers alone would reach the target of 260,000; applications could fall in two or three years: "Then we must react!" The questionnaires sent this year to men turning 18 are not recruitment, he said: "We no longer even know which 18-year-olds there are in Germany who would have to be called up in an emergency or if conscription were reintroduced." The July return put strength at 186,705.

The Military Service Modernisation Act of December 2025 writes a growth path into the Soldiers Act: 186,000 to 190,000 active soldiers this year, 190,000 to 193,000 next year, and by 2035 up to 260,000 active soldiers and at least 200,000 reservists. From 1 January 2027 the ministry must report to the Bundestag every six months, broken down by status group and length of service. Conscription needs a further law: the Bundestag decides by law on a Bedarfswehrpflicht, conscription as required, "in particular" when the defence-policy or personnel situation requires it. In July the growth came from soldiers on fixed-term contracts while the number of volunteers in short service fell.