Signal No. 172 · Bundeswehr raises sabotage risk rating after Wunstorf

An internal Bundeswehr security analysis, reported by WDR and the Süddeutsche Zeitung on Wednesday, rates the threat of Russian sabotage against the armed forces as erheblich (considerable), the second-highest level on its scale. By their account the reassessment follows the drone a farmer found in mid-September about a kilometre from the Wunstorf air base, home of the Luftwaffe's A400M fleet. Like the drone in the failed attack at Leipzig/Halle in early August, it had carried a can of high explosive, which was found a few metres away. The Federal Criminal Police Office's technical analysis, as reported, found it had probably lain there for about two years; investigators think its target was possibly the Bundeswehr's aircraft, not civilian freighters.

The analysis, as quoted, says the incidents show that Russia "has for some time almost certainly had the capability, and very probably now also the increased intent" to act against Bundeswehr forces and facilities, and partners such as Ukraine, in Germany. By using drones "as a kinetic means of effect", it says, Russia has crossed "a previously anticipated red line of intent to harm with kinetic and/or lethal effect". "While the Leipzig incident could still be assessed as an indirect threat to the Bundeswehr, with the Wunstorf incident the Bundeswehr must very probably be assumed to be a direct target."

On the paper's account, Russia's strategic aim is very probably "an intent to subvert, currently focused on the political and society-wide weakening of German support for Ukraine"; its operational aim is to damage that support "in the form of equipment and training". Until now the Bundeswehr's security staff had placed the higher risk at sites where Ukrainian soldiers train and at naval bases and shipyards. The analysis says the risk can no longer be confined to particular places and, citing the intelligence services, expects "a short-term worsening of the situation" and "actions in the near future".

A spokesman for the Bundeswehr's Joint Operations Command confirmed the rating: "Owing to the heightened threat situation, the Bundeswehr currently assumes a considerable risk of sabotage." Protective measures at its sites are being strengthened, he said. On Wednesday a defence ministry spokesman confirmed the rating to dpa and said wider protection of sites was being examined, "a continuous process". Russia denies any part in sabotage in Germany.

Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, met Vladimir Putin at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St Petersburg on Wednesday for almost three hours. Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign-policy adviser, and Kirill Dmitriev, his investment envoy, sat on the Russian side; Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, joined by video. Witkoff brought documents on approaches to a settlement and said: "I also hope you will consider resuming trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States." Afterwards Ushakov said: "we are, in principle, ready to resume the trilateral talks mentioned, in mid-November, on the main topic", which he described as "building a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the conflict ends". RIA Novosti reports Abu Dhabi as a possible venue. A resumption planned for just after the State Duma elections, he said, "was derailed by the Ukrainian regime itself".

Witkoff also briefed Putin on Tuesday's talks in Oslo, where Ukrainian, European and US officials reviewed proposals drafted over the past week. Of the new European and Kyiv approaches, Ushakov's verdict was: "there was not that much useful in them in the context of settling the Ukrainian crisis". By the Kremlin's account the two also discussed a possible meeting of the Russian and US leaders in China; Vedomosti reports that a three-way meeting with Xi Jinping was discussed and that neither side ruled it out. They covered the Persian Gulf and the diesel deal too: Witkoff thanked Putin for lifting Russia's ban on diesel exports, and both sides, Ushakov said, stressed that the deal would help stabilise the world fuel market. Russia released Stephen Hubbard, a retired American teacher detained since 2022.

Unauthorised drones flew at night over the naval base and other military sites around Toulon between 9 and 13 October, during Typhon, an exercise from 5 to 16 October in protecting the sites around the roadstead, the regional broadcaster Ici Provence reported. The sites were the naval base, a site of the DGA, France's armaments agency, and the 54th Artillery Regiment's barracks at Hyères; overflight of the area is prohibited by standing order. A source told the broadcaster: "There were several each time, in any case, and big machines." Despite jamming, none was recovered. The Mediterranean maritime command confirmed incursions over the naval base: "To date, no infrastructure has been threatened". For each one, it said, counter-drone systems were triggered in coordination with the internal security forces. A judicial investigation is open under the military prosecutor's office in Marseille. The number and type of the drones could not be determined.