Signal No. 161 · Black Sea: ships sunk off Romania and Bulgaria

Signal No. 161 · Black Sea: ships sunk off Romania and Bulgaria

Drones sank one Turkish-owned cargo ship and set another on fire off Bulgaria overnight, a day after a grain ship sank off Romania; neither Sofia nor Bucharest names an attacker and Sofia will not seek NATO consultations.

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by Großwald
SIGNAL No. 161
Black Sea: ships sunk off Romania and Bulgaria
Drones sank one Turkish-owned cargo ship and set another on fire off Bulgaria overnight, a day after a grain ship sank off Romania; neither Sofia nor Bucharest names an attacker and Sofia will not seek NATO consultations. Kyiv has declared a drone campaign against Russian shipping in the Black Sea and Moscow speaks of "retaliatory actions". August Hanning, a former BND president, was arrested on suspicion of attempted treason. Germany's budget committee votes on four more F128 frigates on Thursday, Lithuania's Seimas voted 106 to 18 to delete its ban on nuclear weapons and foreign bases, Belgium pulled its last available frigate from Aspides, and SPOCK 1 radar satellites entered service.

SEAGRZCEE Drones sink one Turkish-owned cargo ship and set another on fire in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone; Radev: "either Ukrainian or Russian"

AP via ABC News 6 Oct · AP via Arab News 6 Oct · BTA 6 Oct · Mediapool 6 Oct · Novinite 6 Oct · Knews 6 Oct · Türkiye Today 6 Oct · Fakti 6 Oct · Gândul 6 Oct · Azernews 6 Oct · Trend 6 Oct · Hürriyet 6 Oct · TASS 25 Sep · Signal No. 104 · Signal No. 160

Sea and aerial drones struck two merchant ships at around 03:00 on Tuesday in Bulgaria's economic zone, some 70 nautical miles east of Byala. Rumen Radev, the prime minister, gave the account after an emergency meeting with the defence, interior and transport ministries and the security services. The Alfa Watan sank. The Togo-flagged general cargo ship, owned by Baraka Shipping of Mersin, had Sulina at the Danube mouth as its declared destination; searchers found an overturned boat and life jackets, and by late morning none of its crew had been located. The Able, a Palau-flagged ship of Istanbul's Ocean Eagle carrying wheat south towards Istanbul, caught fire. The Bulgarian ferry Dioscuria rescued all 18 crew; two seriously injured sailors were taken to the naval hospital in Varna. Dimitar Stoyanov, the defence minister, sent an Su-25 on reconnaissance and two rescue helicopters from Krumovo.

"This is an absolutely unacceptable attack in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone, an absolutely gross violation of international law and of maritime law," Radev said. On the origin: "We have no information where the attack on the two ships came from, but it is clear: they are either Ukrainian or Russian." He said the attacks were driving up insurance costs and making shipping in the Black Sea extremely difficult. Bulgaria has informed the EU and NATO; it will not ask for Article 4 or 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to be invoked; NATO referred questions to Sofia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Moscow.

Off Romania, the Romanian Naval Authority resumed its search at 06:30 for a sailor missing from the Royad Mammadov, which sank on Monday about 30 nautical miles south of Sfântu Gheorghe; three of the 11 rescued remain in hospital in Constanța. Romanian authorities have still given no cause. Azerbaijan's foreign ministry said the ship "came under a drone attack" and confirmed the death of its captain, Rustam Hasanov, an Azerbaijani national; Palmali, the Azerbaijani group that operates the ship, spoke of "the loss of two of our seafarers".

For the two ships, the Bulgarian press has published AIS records. The Alfa Watan called at Alexandria and Al-Arish in September, left Egypt on 21 September, passed the Turkish Straits and was in the Marmara on 29 September with Sulina as its declared destination; Sulina, at the Danube mouth, serves Romanian and Ukrainian ports. One outlet gives Kartal, near Istanbul, as its departure port. The Able left Galați on 24 September for Istanbul; it was inspected at Odesa on 15 June and at Chornomorsk in January. Neither record shows a Russian port.

Signal › Both of Radev's candidates are on record attacking shipping in the Black Sea. In July Ukraine's drone-forces commander announced "Now Black Sea", reporting 20 Russian vessels struck there after 116 hits in the Sea of Azov in nine days, by Kyiv's count. On 25 September Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesman, said Ukraine had begun "destroying Turkish merchant vessels with drones" and that this "prompted retaliatory actions by Russia", an account of Moscow's own conduct that names no ship. After 48 hours: three ships hit in two allies' economic zones, Turkish companies owning two and holding a stake in the third. Bucharest has stated no cause. Sofia has named both belligerents as possible attackers and will not ask for consultations under Article 4, which any ally may request over a threat to itself or to another. Ankara has spoken only through its ambassador in Bucharest, and only about Monday's ship: Turkey supports "security, stability and safe navigation in the Black Sea"; its foreign ministry has said nothing. Whether Turkey treats the sinkings as its own case is the open question, and nothing the three governments have said so far makes it one.

GRZDEZ Former BND president August Hanning arrested on suspicion of attempted treason; prosecutors say his former office head passed him nearly 2,000 BND documents for pay

Generalbundesanwalt 6 Oct · Handelsblatt 6 Oct · dpa via boerse.de 6 Oct · dpa via Frankenpost 6 Oct · t-online 6 Oct · StGB § 99

Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) officers arrested August Hanning on Tuesday on warrants from the Federal Court of Justice, the federal prosecutor general said. Hanning was president of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany's foreign intelligence service, from December 1998 to November 2005. He is suspected of treasonous espionage, gathering state secrets, attempted treason and acting as an agent of a foreign intelligence service. Manfred D., who headed his office at the BND and followed him to the interior ministry, where Hanning was state secretary until 2009, was arrested on suspicion of aiding him. From March 2012 to March 2026 Manfred D. headed the office of several later BND presidents.

According to the warrants, the two agreed around the spring of 2010 that D. would supply Hanning, for payment, with BND intelligence for use in his private consultancy. By June 2022, according to the investigation so far, Manfred D. had passed him "nearly two thousand documents", many of them classified, prepared for the BND leadership and in particular for the intelligence situation meeting of senior federal officials held at the Chancellery. Once, Hanning is alleged to have used classified material to write an analysis for an employee of "a foreign intelligence security apparatus"; whether it reached that employee has not been established. Over several years he was in "intensive exchange" with a member of "another state intelligence service", supplying political information, partly from D.'s material.

The case grew out of a search of Hanning's premises by Hamburg prosecutors in September 2025 in an unrelated investigation and was passed to the federal prosecutor in early May 2026; it is being run with the BND and the BKA. Manfred D. was remanded in custody on Tuesday; Hanning goes before the investigating judge on Wednesday. The government said it would not comment. dpa reported that, according to WDR, NDR and the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the case does not concern Russia. Konstantin von Notz, a Green member of the Bundestag's intelligence oversight panel, called it "an iron-hard and unfathomable story" and demanded a full account.

Signal › The prosecutor's statement names no state. The agent-activity offence, Section 99 of the criminal code, applies to the intelligence service of any foreign power, allied or not. Treason, which requires a state secret to be communicated to a foreign power, is charged only as an attempt; the only disclosure to a foreign service that the statement ties expressly to classified material is the analysis, and it has not established that the analysis was delivered. The long exchange with the second contact is described as "political information", partly based on D.'s material; whether that included state secrets, and for which state, the statement does not say. The document count runs to June 2022 as the investigation stands; Manfred D. kept the office until March 2026, and whether the supply continued is not stated.

PLBMDF Lithuania: the Seimas votes 106 to 18 to delete Article 137, the ban on weapons of mass destruction and foreign bases; final vote 12 January

Seimas 6 Oct · BNS via LRT 6 Oct · Großwald 22 Sep · Signal No. 145 · UNN 23 Sep

The amendment passed its first reading on Tuesday with 106 votes for, 18 against and six abstentions; 94 of the 141 votes are required at each of two readings at least three months apart, and the second is set for 12 January. On 22 September the motion to take it up had passed 99 to 13. Nemunas Dawn cast 14 of the votes against and proposed a referendum instead. Article 137 states that there may be no weapons of mass destruction and no foreign military bases on Lithuanian territory; the amendment deletes both clauses.

Laurynas Kasčiūnas, the opposition leader: "With the current restriction, we cannot fully participate in NATO's nuclear deterrence plans." Robertas Kaunas, the defence minister: "We are responding to Russia's aggression."

Signal › The base clause is the one already overtaken by deployments: Panzerbrigade 45 is in place, and two US battalions are due at the end of October. Tuesday's vote turns to the nuclear clause, and the reasons given are nuclear ones. The sequence the archive carries is Finland's. Its parliament repealed the statutory ban on nuclear explosive devices on 17 June, 125 to 61; Finland joined France's deterrence initiative as the tenth partner on 14 September, with a possible temporary deployment of French strategic air forces and no umbrella, obligation or cost share. The three Baltic states were outside that initiative; on 23 September Andris Kulbergs, since asked to form Latvia's government, said Emmanuel Macron had agreed to open talks on Latvia joining. Lithuania's vote removes a bar and creates no role: no accession, planning arrangement or deployment is announced, and the second reading is three months off. Finland's accession came three months after its repeal.

Procurement · Industry · Capability

DEZSEA F128: the option for four more MEKO A-200 DEU frigates, estimated at EUR 5.3 billion, goes to the budget committee on Thursday

The defence ministry wants to exercise the option for four further MEKO A-200 DEU frigates, designated F128; the defence committee hears the submission on Wednesday and the budget committee votes on Thursday. The second lot is estimated at EUR 5.3 billion, after EUR 6.3 billion for the first four approved on 8 July, or EUR 11.6 billion for eight ships entering service from 2029. The option runs to the end of 2026. In August TKMS's chief executive invited the F126's subcontractors to join this lot; Damen's EUR 4.68 billion claim, set out last week, puts most of the sum as owed to those same firms.

ESUT 6 Oct · Signal No. 159

SPCDEZ SPOCK 1: the Bundeswehr has been able to task dedicated radar satellites since 1 October, primarily for the brigade in Lithuania; full capability in 2027

Rheinmetall ICEYE Space Solutions said on Tuesday that the Bundeswehr has direct access to several synthetic-aperture radar satellites reserved for it and can task them itself; operations began on 1 October, and full capability is due in 2027. SPOCK 1, the SAR Space System for Persistent Operational Tracking, Stage 1, is a data contract: the procurement office BAAINBw awarded the joint venture about EUR 1.7 billion gross in December 2025 to supply imagery, run the satellites and ground stations and evaluate the pictures with AI from the end of 2025 to the end of 2030, with options to extend; the constellation stays the venture's property. The uses named are the protection of Panzerbrigade 45 in Lithuania and surveillance of NATO's eastern flank, and BAAINBw says the system will "drastically shorten" warning times. Satellite production has begun at Neuss, with a target of "several dozen" a year. Neither release says how many satellites are in orbit or where they were built; in December the company said production of its first satellites would begin in the third quarter of 2026.

Rheinmetall 6 Oct · hartpunkt 6 Oct · ESUT 6 Oct · Rheinmetall 18 Dec 2025

SEAINT Belgium withdraws the frigate Leopold I from Aspides over technical defects; its sister ship is in maintenance

The Belgian Navy said on Monday evening that the Leopold I "will not participate in the European maritime security operation EUNAVFOR ASPIDES" after "additional technical challenges were identified, including in the repair of various essential ship systems". The frigate broke down in July with Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 and went to Den Helder for repairs; the Louise-Marie, Belgium's only other frigate, is in maintenance. The replacements are the anti-submarine frigates ordered with the Netherlands from Damen; Theo Francken, the defence minister, is due to decide this month whether Belgium stays in that programme.

ANP via Reformatorisch Dagblad 5 Oct · La Libre 28 Jul

Forward Look

This week: Wednesday 7 October: the Bundestag defence committee considers the F128 option. Thursday 8 October: the budget committee votes on it; first readings of the Aspides and UNMISS mandates. Friday 9 October: the EU Council is due to adopt the IRINI extension.

Further out: Monday 12 October: Grynkewich presents NATO's eastern-flank plan in Poland; the EU Council is due to adopt 1,600 military-industrial listings. Thursday–Friday 15–16 October: the European Council. October: Francken's decision on the anti-submarine frigates; Colby's working group in Poland. Late October: the three-way technical meeting; the two US battalions reach Lithuania. Wednesday 28 October: the UK budget. Thursday 29 October: the Duma's first reading of Russia's budget. Tuesday 3 November: Latvia's new Saeima convenes; Edgars Rinkēvičs, the president, asked Andris Kulbergs on Tuesday to form the government. Friday 6 November: the posture review's option sets reach Hegseth. Thursday 12 November: the budget committee's final session on the 2027 budget. Tuesday 12 January 2027: the Seimas's final vote on Article 137.

Watch: an attacker named by Bucharest or Sofia for the three strikes, and a statement from Ankara's foreign ministry; whether the Alfa Watan's crew is found; Hanning's appearance before the investigating judge on Wednesday, and any naming of the foreign services; the budget committee's vote on the F128 lot.

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