Russia's Draft 2027 Budget Puts National Defence at RUB 17.1 Trillion, 26.4 Per Cent Above Plan — RUB 16.3 Trillion in 2029 as Internal Security Rises
Moscow, 1 October 2026
Key points
- The Russian government submitted the draft federal budget for 2027–2029 to the State Duma on the evening of 30 September (bill No. 615-9), on an order signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. The explanatory note puts the National Defence section at RUB 17.15 trillion in 2027, RUB 16.61 trillion in 2028 and RUB 16.30 trillion in 2029
- The budget law in force had planned RUB 13.6 trillion for 2027 and RUB 13.05 trillion for 2028; the note puts the 2027 increase at RUB 3.6 trillion, or 26.4 per cent. The section stood at RUB 12.9 trillion in the 2026 budget and RUB 13.5 trillion in 2025
- National Security and Law Enforcement, the section that funds the interior ministry, the National Guard and the security services, rises from RUB 4.29 trillion in 2027 to RUB 4.42 trillion in 2028 and RUB 5.02 trillion in 2029
- Spending in 2027 is planned at about RUB 48.8 trillion against revenue of RUB 43.3 trillion; this year's deficit is revised to RUB 7.345 trillion, 3.2 per cent of GDP, from RUB 3.785 trillion. The plan assumes a baseline oil price of USD 50 a barrel and 1.4 per cent real growth in 2027. The Duma's first reading is set for 29 October
Russia's government has asked for more money for national defence in 2027 than in any budget since the full-scale invasion, and written a decline into the two years after it.
The 2027 figure is the planning year that moved most. A year ago the law put it at RUB 13.6 trillion; the draft now asks for RUB 17.1 trillion, about 35 per cent of all federal spending and, against the government's own nominal GDP forecast of RUB 248.3 trillion, about 6.9 per cent of GDP by Großwald's arithmetic. The out-years decline in nominal terms, to RUB 16.6 trillion and then RUB 16.3 trillion, which against the 2029 GDP forecast of RUB 281.7 trillion is about 5.8 per cent. Little of it can be inspected: the exiled outlet Vyorstka counts RUB 2.3 trillion of the 2027 defence figure itemised in the public documents, and 34.9 per cent of all federal spending classified.
The fiscal frame is tighter than the defence line. This year's deficit has roughly doubled against the forecast, to RUB 7.345 trillion; the draft projects deficits above RUB 5 trillion in each of the next three years, on an oil price of USD 50 and growth of 1.4 per cent. Andrei Makarov, chairman of the Duma's budget committee, has scheduled the first of three readings for 29 October.
The decline after 2027 is in defence alone: add the security section and the total holds at about RUB 21 trillion in each of the three years. On the explanatory note's own figures, National Defence falls by RUB 0.85 trillion between 2027 and 2029 while National Security and Law Enforcement rises by RUB 0.73 trillion, so the combined sum moves from RUB 21.4 trillion to RUB 21.0 trillion and back to RUB 21.3 trillion. The out-years also have the standing that RUB 13.6 trillion had a year ago, which the 2027 figure has just shown to be weak; whether the defence decline survives will be visible only when next autumn's draft restates 2028. Signal No. 158 led with the draft on the day the note was published.
