Signal No. 134 · Forty billion, no offer
Der Spiegel reports the eight F127 air-defence frigates at more than EUR 40 billion against the roughly EUR 26 billion Berlin has carried; the defence ministry says it has no firm offer, and TKMS calls the figure "not comprehensible" while offering a smaller ship if the requirement changes.
DEZSEA Spiegel puts the F127 at more than EUR 40 billion for eight ships; the ministry says it has no firm offer, TKMS says the number is "not comprehensible" and offers a smaller frigate if the requirement changes
Spiegel 27 Aug · hartpunkt 28 Aug · Opex360 28 Aug · hartpunkt commentary 27 Aug · Großwald Dispatch · F127 FMS · Signal No. 89 · Signal No. 115 · Großwald Positions · German frigates
Der Spiegel reported on Thursday, citing defence-ministry sources, that the current estimate for the eight F127 air-defence frigates has risen to more than EUR 40 billion from the roughly EUR 26 billion the programme has been carried at, that the programme "is currently undergoing thorough examination", and that budget officials doubt it can be realised as planned. Divided across eight hulls that is more than EUR 5 billion each; it is not a disclosed hull price, and neither report says what the estimate contains. The magazine attributed the increase to the American Aegis combat system and its sensors. The defence ministry declined to confirm the figure and said it had not yet received a "firm offer" from industry. On Friday TKMS, which leads the programme with consortium partner Rheinmetall, issued a statement: "TKMS cannot confirm the costs for the planned F127 named in current media reporting. The sum of more than 40 billion euros mentioned in the media is not comprehensible to us" — adding that the figure does not correspond to the shipbuilding cost allocation between the TKMS and Rheinmetall yards, and that it could propose smaller frigates with a reduced capability profile if the customer's requirement fundamentally changed. TKMS puts the first ship in 2034, conditional on a contract award soon; none has been ordered.
The ship as specified is 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes, with 96 Mk 41 vertical-launch cells, SM-2 Block IIIC and SM-6 Block I missiles, and a US-supplied Aegis combat system with the SPY-6 radar family — the package the State Department cleared on 17 April as a Foreign Military Sale of up to USD 11.9 billion for eight shipsets, of which USD 3.5 billion is 173 SM-6 Block I and 577 SM-2 Block IIIC missiles. At current rates the notification is roughly EUR 10 billion; the increase Spiegel reports is about EUR 14 billion. The notification is a ceiling on a cleared package, not a contract. The public record does not allow the reported increase to be allocated between the US package, hull, German sensors, integration and support; Aegis may be one driver, but the sources do not draw the perimeter. TKMS's statement argues only that the figure does not match the yard-cost allocation. hartpunkt's commentary applies the rule of thumb for Aegis ships of one third hull, two thirds combat system. Thursday's reporting carried demands from budget and defence members for a procurement plan and cost transparency; Friday's names no Bundestag member.
Two months ago the ministry cancelled the F126 on cost: six ships projected above EUR 18 billion, first delivery slipping to 2032, replaced by up to eight MEKO A-200 DEU export frigates, designated F128, four firm at EUR 6.3 billion cleared by the Haushaltsausschuss on 8 July and signed on 14 July. The F127 was not among the 16 submissions cleared that day and has never had a budget-committee vote; in May Armin Papperger, Rheinmetall's chief executive, said the ministry's capacity made an F127 decision unlikely in 2026. The yard meant to build the hulls, German Naval Yards Kiel, is in an unresolved ownership contest: TKMS withdrew its non-binding bid on 21 July, Rheinmetall's of 8 May stands with no binding offer reported. The EUR 26 billion the leak is measured against is a programme-level estimate that predates the FMS notification; the F127 is not separately itemised in the enacted 2026 budget.
Signal › The reported EUR 40 billion is not yet a ship price. It is notice that the public F127 figure and the EUR 26 billion it is measured against may not describe the same programme: eight hulls, the Aegis and missile package, German integration, support and risk can sit inside very different accounting perimeters, and neither source draws one. The ministry's statement establishes only that no costed offer has been received; between that and a committee vote sit the final requirement, the yard allocation, the offer itself and a decision to submit. The ownership contest at Kiel bears on that sequence; the record does not show it alone holding it up. TKMS has made one trade explicit — reduce the requirement and it can offer a smaller ship — and whether the ministry takes it is the nearer decision than the price. A costed offer and a 25-million-euro submission would settle the perimeter; a second leak would not.
DEZSTK BAAINBw confirms the Luftwaffe's F-35A will enter service without the JASSM-ER: the 2022 request for up to 75 missiles "postponed in favour of other measures"
hartpunkt 28 Aug · Großwald Positions · European deep strike
The procurement office BAAINBw told hartpunkt that the purchase of the AGM-158B JASSM-ER, requested from the US Air Force in 2022 alongside the 35 F-35A, "was for the time being postponed in favour of other measures" after what it called a comprehensive realignment of the Luftwaffe's capability picture following Russia's full-scale invasion. The 2022 request covered up to 75 missiles through Foreign Military Sales. The Pentagon's latest Selected Acquisition Report for the programme no longer lists Germany as a JASSM-ER buyer or partner. The F-35A is to reach initial operating capability with Tactical Air Wing 33 at Büchel in 2027 and to take over the Tornado's roles from 2030; the first German airframe has completed final assembly at Lockheed Martin. The stand-off weapon hartpunkt names for the aircraft is the Joint Strike Missile, whose F-35 integration it puts before the end of 2027; the quantity Germany would buy, the delivery schedule and the funded integration line are not in the report. The Bundeswehr's other stand-off procurements are not F-35 weapons and are not placed: the Taurus Neo, for which MBDA and Saab were contracted in December 2025 to prepare serial production, and the Tomahawk purchase Chancellor Merz confirmed on 9 July, whose US export approval the Pistorius–Hegseth letter of intent committed for August — unpublished as of 22 August, with the month ending Monday.
Signal › The deferral is a force-package question before it is a missed purchase. The F-35A acquisition settles the aircraft, not the conventional stand-off inventory that follows the Tornado from 2030: the Joint Strike Missile, Taurus Neo and Tomahawk belong to different platforms, ranges, readiness dates and employment concepts, and none of the three is placed in quantity. The document that would settle it is a funded weapons-and-integration submission naming platform, number, first delivery and certification date rather than restating range; the Taurus Neo submission, when it comes, is the first place to look.
RUCSTK Ukraine's first full night after the Moscow window: Moscow region back on the Russian ministry's list, a refinery at Yaroslavl, a Tu-95MS at Engels — and the Kremlin says peace talks are "on a deep pause"
Fontanka 28 Aug · Lenta 28 Aug · Moscow Times 28 Aug · Ukrainska Pravda 28 Aug · UNN 28 Aug · Militarnyi 28 Aug · AP 28 Aug · Moscow Times 28 Aug · Signal No. 133
The Russian Defence Ministry counted 512 Ukrainian drones destroyed between 20:00 Thursday and 08:30 Friday over 19 regions, Moscow region among them and Leningrad region not, with no per-region figures. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported two drones shot down on approach to Moscow overnight and seven more in the afternoon. In Yaroslavl, Governor Mikhail Yevraev reported 67 drones downed over the region, one person killed and 27 injured; the Slavneft-YANOS refinery, one of Russia's five largest, burned. President Zelenskyy said the Security Service of Ukraine's Alpha unit had struck a Tu-95MS at Engels; satellite imagery the AviVector group published by late afternoon shows a Tu-95MS with part of its right wing broken off, which Militarnyi identifies as the pair-mate of the aircraft hit on 16 July. In the other direction the Ukrainian Air Force logged 164 drones and no missiles, 137 shot down or suppressed; Kyiv region took a second consecutive night, one killed. Asked about negotiations, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the topic "is currently on a deep pause" and that Kyiv "knows our demands full well" — three days after CIA Director John Ratcliffe's meetings in Moscow.
Signal › Wednesday's question — whether Ukraine's reported targets would include Moscow or St Petersburg once the window closed — has a partial answer on the parties' own figures: Moscow region is back on the ministry's list, Leningrad region is not, and the campaign struck Engels and Yaroslavl in between. That is enough to show the campaign continued through the window. It is not enough to establish the terms, duration or enforcement of whatever restraint Washington asked for; morning lists cannot carry that weight, and the next one will not either.
Procurement · Industry · Capability
AIRDIN Airbus Spain: Thursday's 14-hour session ends past 23:00 with no agreement; the company conditions further talks on a temporary suspension, unions vote by Monday, next session 1 September
The mediation session at SIMA ran more than 14 hours. Airbus tabled what the ÚTIL union described to EFE as "some novelty" but "conditioned the continuation of negotiations on the temporary suspension of the strike"; the three unions — UGT, CGT and ÚTIL — will put suspension to workplace assemblies by Monday at the latest, and a further session is set for Tuesday 1 September if they agree. The strike, indefinite since Tuesday across the Spanish plants including the Getafe conversion line for the Spain–Poland A330 MRTT framework authorised on Tuesday, continues until the vote. (Telemadrid 28 Aug · Signal No. 133)
IAMDARC Finland orders RBS 70 NG from Saab for SEK 1.2 billion, with options — recapitalising the very-short-range layer it has fielded since 2008
Saab announced an initial order from the Finnish Defence Forces Logistics Command for the laser-beam-riding RBS 70 NG very-short-range system, SEK 1.2 billion including training, spares and maintenance equipment, with an option for further orders; deliveries undated. Finland has fielded the RBS 70 since 2008 and is renewing the layer rather than replacing it with a networked medium-range system. (Saab 28 Aug)
SPC ESA signs the European Launcher Challenge: Isar Aerospace EUR 197.8 million, Rocket Factory Augsburg EUR 186.9 million, PLD Space EUR 169 million, each conditional on an orbital flight before 2028
The three contracts are financed mainly by Germany — with Austria and Norway on Isar, the United Kingdom on RFA, and Spain's PLD co-funded from Berlin — and MaiaSpace's French contract is in final negotiation. ESA's director of space transportation, Géraldine Naja, said the funding supports "the build-up of European space capabilities". None of the three has reached orbit; public money is buying a dated demonstration flight from firms that have not yet flown one. (hartpunkt 28 Aug)
SEA HMS Bulwark transfers to Brazil; the UK–Netherlands replacement is four ships each, 160 metres and 15,000 tonnes, UK-built, GBP 1.5 billion in the Defence Investment Plan
The Ministry of Defence announced the transfer of the 2005 landing platform dock to the Brazilian Navy, value undisclosed; sister ship HMS Albion stays at Devonport awaiting disposal. The replacement is the July 2026 agreement with The Hague — GBP 2.4 billion across the two navies, four vessels a nation, built in British yards with Dutch industry. Both Albion-class ships leave before a replacement keel is laid; the release gives no first-of-class date, so the length of the amphibious gap is not yet public. (UK MoD 28 Aug)
Forward Look
By Monday: Airbus Spain assemblies vote on suspending the strike; if they do, SIMA reconvenes Tuesday 1 September. A "no" leaves the Getafe MRTT line stopped into a second week.
Monday 31 August: the last day of the month Washington's letter of intent named for Germany's Tomahawk export approval; a DSCA notification would attach quantity, value and delivery years.
1–2 September: the Gymnich at Druids Glen, County Wicklow — Kallas and McEntee host, with Ukrainian air defence, the US-led talks track and Hormuz on the Irish Presidency's agenda.
Autumn sittings of the Haushaltsausschuss: whether an F127 submission is among the roughly 100 the ministry plans before year-end — against Papperger's May forecast of none in 2026 — and whether it is the ship as specified or the reduced profile TKMS has now offered; the Boxer contract Papperger expects by December; the Taurus Neo submission and whether it names F-35 integration.
Posture review: Friday was the due date for allied answers to the Pentagon's questionnaire; by evening no capital had published what it sent, and the Pentagon had issued nothing. Colby on Thursday named Germany, Poland and the Scandinavian countries with approval and hoped "to see more from countries like the United Kingdom" — the only ally named for more. Decision briefing by 18 September; at least four option sets to Hegseth by 6 November; completion in December. 27 September: the Swiss referendum on the F-35A advance payments.
Watch: which capitals confirm they answered the questionnaire, and whether London is among them; whether the ministry acknowledges a costed F127 offer before the autumn sittings; and Kyiv's promised briefing to Vilnius on the Ratcliffe meetings.
