BND President Jäger: Russia Is Trying to Stop Arms Production for Ukraine "Also Kinetically, Also Here" — No Sign of a Large-Scale Attack on NATO
Berlin, 5 October 2026
Key points
- Martin Jäger, president of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), opened the annual public hearing of the three federal intelligence chiefs before the Bundestag's Parliamentary Oversight Panel on 5 October: "Germany is in danger of ending up in a violent conflict with Russia. The attempted attack at Leipzig is only one example" (translated)
- His four expectations: attacks on Ukraine this winter of a "severity and brutality" not seen so widely before; attempts to stop Western production and deliveries of arms for Ukraine "where possible, also kinetically, also here"; "presumably" renewed nuclear threats; and "no indications of a large-scale attack by Russia on NATO territory", while low-threshold military activity is possible, "particularly in the Baltic states", and false-flag operations cannot be excluded
- Sinan Selen, president of the domestic service BfV, said Russia shows a readiness for sabotage "and killing operations", with transport, the defence industry and military infrastructure "in the crosshairs"; Martina Rosenberg of the military counter-intelligence service MAD spoke of "very concrete attacks" on Germany
- Jäger: "We are not in a state of defence, and are being attacked nonetheless" (translated). He welcomed the wider oversight in the intelligence-law reform, which had its first Bundestag reading on 24 September
Germany's foreign intelligence chief told parliament that Russia now counts German arms production for Ukraine among its targets, and that his service sees no sign of a large-scale Russian attack on NATO territory.
Jäger called it a shadow war. Leipzig, the explosive drone at Leipzig/Halle airport that Berlin attributed to Russia on 1 September, is his example, and his second expectation is the one that names a class of target: Western production and delivery of weapons and materiel for Ukraine. Selen named the same class from the domestic side. "Russia is testing us and watching closely how we deal with this situation," Jäger said, by the Bundestag's account; any sign of wavering invites more pressure.
The fourth expectation is a two-part judgement other services have already made. In May Michal Koudelka, director of the Czech BIS, said a Russian attempt to attack a NATO member, for example in the Baltic region, to test the alliance's response was much more likely than a massive attack. Jäger adds false-flag operations and gives no timeframe.
"Also here" puts the defence-industrial base on a front the BND does not hold: inside Germany it belongs to the BfV and the police, and the law that would let the BfV act against a planted device has only had its first reading. The reform the cabinet adopted on 12 August is that law. The target set Jäger describes also widens with each production agreement: the day before the hearing German firms signed memoranda in Kyiv for IRIS-T missiles, radars and interceptors, and on 29 September Estonia attributed the Milrem Robotics arson to Russian services. Jäger named no plant. Signal No. 160 read his fourth point against the Czech and Polish services' assessments.
Related · Russian sabotage and the German services
- Berlin's Cabinet Adopts the Intelligence Reform Giving BND and BfV Active Measures Under One Control Council
- Berlin Attributes the Leipzig/Halle Drone Attack to Russia, Closes the Bonn Consulate by 18 September
- German Military Counter-Intelligence Says the Sabotage Threat "Increased Considerably" in 2025
- Estonia Attributes the 15 August Milrem Robotics Arson to Russia's Special Services on KAPO Intelligence — Chargé d'Affaires Summoned, Three Latvian Suspects Charged
