Poland Finishes Negotiating the Saab A26 Submarine Deal but an Offset Dispute Stalls Signature

The acquisition contract itself is unsigned. Poland selected Saab's A26 Blekinge-class design in November 2025, and the technical terms — a package of around PLN 10–12 billion — are now settled and in state legal review. What is not settled is the industrial-cooperation package Warsaw has made the precondition for signature.

Those demands are specific: Sweden is to buy the Ratownik rescue ship from PGZ's naval shipyard at Gdynia; a PGZ–Saab joint venture is to cover submarine maintenance and the production of underwater drones and heavy torpedoes; and a defined technology transfer must accompany the boats. On the Ratownik, the Swedish side has so far offered only written declarations of interest, short of the commitment Warsaw wants. Gołota — who holds the industrial file from the Ministry of State Assets, not the defence ministry — framed the timeline as a hard fork: a positive government recommendation lets the Armaments Agency sign in June; its absence opens July negotiations with Fincantieri or Hanwha Ocean, both of which remain ready.

The proprietary read. Orka is a test of whether Poland's build-at-home doctrine survives contact with a submarine it cannot build at home. Warsaw has routed its SAFE billions overwhelmingly into domestic industry; the A26 is the exception it must import, and it is trying to claw the industrial value back through the offset rather than the platform. The risk is that the offset demands — a rescue-ship sale, a joint venture, technology transfer — are heavy enough to tip Saab past the point where the deadline favours the Korean or Italian bid built for faster delivery. The end-June clock is real, and we will score it. Tracked in Signal No. 81.