NNbS: Germany's SHORAD Rebuild Is Delivering — Except at the Bottom

Key Insights:
- Germany's short-range air defence rebuild has accelerated: the first IRIS-T SLM fire unit reached the Bundeswehr in February 2026, Skyranger 30 procurement expanded from 18 to a planned 600 units; MBDA's DefendAir extends the Skyranger engagement envelope to 6 km.
- Yet the dedicated 35mm C-RAM point-defence layer under NNbS Teilprojekt 3 remains uncontracted, with sibling programmes running 12–18 months behind schedule.
- Meanwhile, Ukraine's mass deployment of interceptor drones — now accounting for 30% of aerial kills at $1,000–5,000 (most operational systems $2,000–4,000) — introduces a cost tier below even gun-based defence, complicating the original C-RAM calculus.


Signal: The upper tiers are delivering. The lowest tier — where volume matters most — has no contract, no prototype, and a cost structure being rewritten underneath it.


This report updates our May 2025 assessment of Germany's 35mm C-RAM programme under NNbS Teilprojekt 3. In the intervening ten months, the broader NNbS programme has reached several hardware milestones while the gun-based point-defence tier itself remains uncontracted. The threat landscape, meanwhile, has evolved faster than the procurement.

NNbS Programme Status, March 2026

The Nah- und Nächstbereichsschutz (NNbS) programme — Germany's umbrella initiative for rebuilding short- and very-short-range air defence — has moved from contracts to hardware. Here is what has materialised since the EUR 1.2 billion ARGE development contract was signed in January 2024.

Skyranger 30. Rheinmetall delivered the first Boxer Skyranger 30 verification model to the Bundeswehr in late January 2025. The admission trial (Erprobung) began in spring 2025; no public results have been released. Serial deliveries of the initial 18 systems are now projected for 2027–2028 — approximately 18 months behind the original schedule. More significantly, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger announced in August 2025 that a framework contract for 500–600 Skyranger 30 systems, valued at EUR 6–8 billion, was expected by year-end. As of March 2026, the framework contract has not been formally signed — but the planning figure represents a tenfold expansion over the original 18-unit buy, and Rheinmetall is already scaling production capacity to 200 units per year.

DefendAir. In November 2025, Germany signed a EUR 490 million contract with MBDA to develop and integrate the DefendAir compact guided missile for the Skyranger 30. Each vehicle will carry 9–12 missiles alongside its 30mm cannon, extending the engagement envelope from approximately 2 km to 6 km. Series production is expected in 2029, with deliveries from 2030. DefendAir effectively transforms the Skyranger 30 from a pure gun platform into a hybrid gun-missile C-UAS system — blurring the doctrinal boundary between VSHORAD and SHORAD.

IRIS-T SLM. The German Air Force's Flugabwehrraketengruppe 61 at Todendorf received the first IRIS-T SLM fire unit in German national configuration on 13 February 2026: one Hensoldt TRML-4D radar, one IBMS-FC command post, and three launchers with 24 ready-to-fire missiles. A fire unit had been delivered by Diehl to BAAINBw in early August 2024 and received limited IOC in September, but could not enter full national service until February 2026 because its ammunition loading crane had not been certified under German safety regulations. Five more fire units are scheduled for delivery through 2026, though there is no confirmation all six will arrive within the originally agreed timeline.

Separately, Diehl Defence presented the IRIS-T SLM/X at Enforce Tac in February 2026 — a universal launcher firing both the medium-range SLM and a new long-range SLX interceptor with dual-mode seeker, extending the IRIS-T engagement envelope to 80 km (100 km maximum range). Switzerland has begun formal evaluation of European alternatives, including the IRIS-T SLX, as a possible supplement to delayed Patriot deliveries (Swiss Federal Council decision, 6 March 2026), narrowing the gap with Patriot at the lower end of its engagement envelope. Beyond the initial six fire units, reporting from Hartpunkt (November 2025) and Defence Industry Europe (February 2026) indicates planning discussions for up to 50–75 IRIS-T SLM fire units — including, for the first time, units assigned to Army air defence battalions rather than exclusively to the Air Force — and up to 100 IRIS-T SLS systems. If realised, this would represent a far larger build-out of the medium and short tiers than current contracted figures suggest.

IRIS-T SLS on Boxer. Eight fire units were ordered in November 2025 for EUR 320 million, mounted on Boxer vehicles under the NNbS architecture. This gives Germany a mobile missile tier integrated into the same Boxer fleet as the Skyranger 30.

Arrow 3. Germany's exo-atmospheric ballistic missile defence layer reached initial operational capability at Holzdorf Air Base in December 2025. The Bundestag subsequently approved a EUR 3 billion expansion, bringing the combined programme value beyond USD 6.5 billion — Israel's largest-ever defence export. Three battery sites are planned across Germany, with full operational capability by 2030.

Heeresflugabwehrtruppe. On 30 April 2025, the German Army formally re-established its Heeresflugabwehrtruppe (army air defence force), disbanded in 2012. Headquartered at Lüneburg, the unit is the designated organisational home for Skyranger 30 and, eventually, C-RAM systems.

C-RAM (Teilprojekt 3). No platform selected. No contract signed. The 2028 delivery target remains in planning documents. As we address below, sibling project delays cast serious doubt on this timeline.

The C-RAM Question, Revisited

Our May 2025 assessment outlined the rationale for a dedicated 35mm cannon-based C-RAM layer: gun-based point defence at EUR 560 per round versus EUR 250K–1.5M per missile interceptor, providing an affordable, high-volume inner shield against drone swarms and indirect fire. Ten months later, that rationale has been reinforced by every operational data point from Ukraine — and by a growing analytical consensus that missile-only architectures are fiscally unsustainable against saturation-era threats.

The programme itself, however, has not advanced. NNbS Teilprojekt 3 remains in the conceptual phase. No Revolver Gun Mk3 derivative, no evolved MANTIS configuration, no Skynex-derived solution has been contracted. The projected technical profile — 35mm calibre, programmable airburst, radar-cued, integrated into the Skynex fire-control ecosystem — still represents the most credible integration path, but no hardware exists in Bundeswehr hands for testing.

The schedule risk is not speculative. It is visible in the trajectory of sibling NNbS programmes. The FlaRakPz (IRIS-T SLS on Boxer) is running approximately 12 months behind its original timeline. Skyranger 30 serial deliveries are now projected for 2027–2028, later than the original schedule due to Boxer vehicle production bottlenecks. According to Janes reporting from IAV 2026, Skyranger 30 will not reach full operational capability until the end of the decade. Similar delays across sibling NNbS programmes raise the risk that first C-RAM deliveries under Teilprojekt 3 could slip into 2029–2030.

There is, however, an external validation that strengthens the platform case. Italy became the first NATO member to operationally field the Skynex system when Rheinmetall delivered the first battery to the Italian Army at Sabaudia in December 2025. The EUR 73 million initial order, with options for three additional systems (potential total ~EUR 280 million), provides a live NATO operational reference for the exact platform family Germany's C-RAM layer will likely draw from. How Italy integrates and evaluates the system under operational conditions will bear directly on Germany's platform selection — if and when it occurs.

Platform & Integration Outlook

The platform choice for NNbS Teilprojekt 3 has converged on the Rheinmetall Skynex family — four Revolver Gun Mk 3 cannons, X-TAR3D radar and CN-1 control node on HX trucks — exactly the configuration already operational with the Italian Army. Italy’s live operational data from Sabaudia is feeding directly into Bundeswehr trials, particularly on IBMS-FC network latency and shared fire-control with the mobile Skyranger 30 fleet.

Static Skynex batteries will therefore integrate seamlessly with the planned 600 mobile Skyranger 30 + DefendAir vehicles at the 2–4 km overlap zone. The main remaining constraints are programmable 35 mm ammunition production ramp-up (Rheinmetall has confirmed capacity expansion but still cites a 12–18 month lead time) and the still-unpublished exact battery quantity for Teilprojekt 3 (expected inside the original €1.2 bn ARGE envelope).

This integration path strengthens rather than dilutes the original C-RAM requirement: the static layer handles fixed-site and very-short-range rocket/mortar defence that even 600 mobile hybrids cannot fully saturate in all-weather conditions.

The Interceptor Drone Variable

The most significant development since May 2025 is one the original analysis did not anticipate: the operational maturation of interceptor drones as a distinct air defence layer.

Ukrainian forces deployed interceptor drones at industrial scale through 2025, producing approximately 100,000 units (NSDC). Frontline distribution reached an average of over 1,500 units per day in December 2025–January 2026 (Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal, 7 January 2026). By early 2026, interceptor drones accounted for roughly 30% of all aerial kills — and over 70% of Shahed downings over Kyiv. At a unit cost of $1,000–5,000 (most operational frontline systems $2,000–4,000) with a success rate exceeding 60%, they have fundamentally rewritten the cost-exchange ratio that anchors air defence economics.

The thesis received real-time NATO-adjacent validation in March 2026 when Ukrainian interceptor-drone teams and systems were urgently deployed to Jordan at US request (Al Jazeera, 10 March 2026; Military Times, 11 March 2026) to counter Shahed swarms targeting US and Gulf bases. This marked the first operational export of Ukraine’s low-cost interceptor model into a US-led coalition environment — exactly the cost-exchange dynamic (drone vs missile) the article has tracked since May 2025. Early reports indicate the same 60 %+ success rate and dramatic reduction in Patriot/THAAD expenditure.

This introduces a cost tier that did not exist in our original analysis:

When our May 2025 article argued that "EUR 1 spent on 35mm ammunition delivers about the same intercept effect as EUR 15–30 worth of missiles," this was the strongest economic case available at the time. Interceptor drones now push the frontier further: EUR 1 spent on interceptor drones delivers roughly the same effect as EUR 8–14 worth of 35mm ammunition — at far greater scalability, since drone production can ramp faster than precision munitions manufacturing.

This does not invalidate the C-RAM case. Interceptor drones and autocannons address overlapping but not identical threat sets. Drones excel against slow-moving, predictable targets — Shaheds, reconnaissance UAVs, loitering munitions on predictable approach vectors — but lack the reaction time and all-weather reliability needed against rocket and mortar salvoes, precision-guided munitions, or fast cruise missiles at close range. The 35mm gun layer retains its doctrinal niche as a hard-kill, all-weather, rapid-reaction inner shield. But it can no longer claim to be the cheapest layer of the stack.

This actually sharpens the C-RAM requirement rather than eroding it. Interceptor drones dominate against slow, predictable, GPS-enabled targets but cannot reliably engage jet-powered Geran-3 variants at 400–500 km/h, rocket and mortar salvoes in fog or low visibility, low-level cruise missiles in GPS/EW-denied airspace, or FPV operations when datalinks are jammed. The 35 mm gun layer — all-weather, sub-second reaction time, zero operator in the loop — fills exactly those residual hard-kill niches that the drone layer inherently leaves exposed.

Germany has not announced an interceptor drone programme for homeland air defence. Whether this emerges as a Bundeswehr capability — and how it would integrate with the NNbS architecture — remains an open question with significant implications for the C-RAM's planned procurement scale.

Germany's IAMD Architecture, Updated

Germany's layered integrated air and missile defence architecture has expanded from the three functional tiers we described in May 2025 to six — with a seventh emerging. The table below reflects the posture as of March 2026:

The architecture is maturing rapidly — but unevenly. The upper tiers (Arrow 3, Patriot, IRIS-T SLM) have reached or are approaching operational status. The lower tiers, where volume, cost, and reaction time matter most against the dominant threat of the decade, remain in various stages of procurement, development, or absence. The point-defence C-RAM layer is the most conspicuous gap: the only tier with no contracted hardware and no operational prototype in German hands.

European Context: Gun-Based Defence Goes Operational

Our May 2025 article surveyed emerging European trends in gun-based air defence. Ten months later, several have moved from concept to operation.

Italy inducted its first Rheinmetall Skynex battery in December 2025 — four Revolver Gun Mk3 cannons, a CN-1 control node, and an X-TAR3D radar on HX trucks. Italy is the first NATO member to operationally field this configuration: the same platform family Germany's C-RAM will likely adopt.

Turkey expanded the KORKUT family with two new variants. Aselsan unveiled the KORKUT 100/25 SB in June 2025 — a dedicated counter-drone system using 25mm AI-guided smart airburst ammunition. In January 2026, the KORKUT 140/35 successfully engaged and destroyed an FPV drone during dynamic field trials, providing live-fire validation of gun-based counter-UAS under realistic conditions. Both feed into Turkey's national Steel Dome layered architecture, which Aselsan confirmed as its top 2026 priority.

United States. The Army's directed-energy M-SHORAD programme has stalled: the GAO assessed the 50kW Stryker-mounted laser as insufficiently mature for production, pushing the transition by approximately two years. The Army is pivoting to Increment 4 — a modular "sled" concept that mounts air defence kits on any vehicle (JLTV, ISV, Humvee), untethering SHORAD from a single platform. Meanwhile, the Next Generation Short Range Interceptor (NGSRI) completed its first flight test at White Sands in January 2026, and the XM1223 MMPA programmable airburst 30mm round will augment existing M-SHORAD autocannons — a kinetic solution advancing while directed energy falters.

LEAP. In February 2026, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland launched the LEAP programme (Low-Cost Effectors & Autonomous Platforms) to jointly develop affordable, autonomous air defence effectors — explicitly motivated by the cost asymmetry exposed in Ukraine. First project delivery is targeted for 2027.

Ukraine. Rheinmetall received an order in October 2025 for Skyranger 35 systems — the 35mm gun on a Leopard 1 chassis — for Ukraine, funded by EU frozen Russian asset revenues. Deliveries began before year-end. Separately, all Skynex deliveries to Ukraine were completed in November 2025. Ukraine now operates the most combat-tested gun-based air defence network in the world: over 60 Gepard SPAAGs supplied by Germany and partner nations, Skynex batteries for point defence, and the arriving Skyranger 35s — supplemented by its domestically produced interceptor drone fleet.

The broader pattern is clear. CEPA's assessment — "guns, not missiles, will defeat the drone" — captures an emerging NATO consensus. The question is no longer whether gun-based defence has a role. It is how to scale it, network it, and integrate it with the interceptor drone layer that Ukraine is pioneering.

Revised Timeline

Großwald Assessment

Three conclusions emerge from the evidence accumulated since May 2025.

First, the case for gun-based C-RAM is amplified. Every data point from Ukraine reinforces the thesis: in a drone-saturated battlespace, missile-only defence is unaffordable and undersupplied. The Gepard's operational record, Skynex deployments in both Ukraine and Italy, the KORKUT live-fire results, and the analytical consensus forming around CEPA's "guns not missiles" thesis all converge. The 35mm autocannon with programmable airburst remains the proven kinetic hard-kill solution for the volume threat at close range.

Second, Germany's C-RAM programme is behind the curve it created. The Bundeswehr articulated the requirement. The ARGE NNbS consortium was formed. Italy has a Skynex battery in the field. Ukraine operates Skynex batteries under combat conditions. Germany — the system's conceptual sponsor and Rheinmetall's home market — does not have a C-RAM contract, a selected platform, or a prototype under test.

Third, the market has shifted beneath the programme. Two developments complicate the original C-RAM calculus:

• Skyranger 30's tenfold expansion, combined with DefendAir's 6 km missile envelope, creates a mobile gun-missile hybrid force of up to 600 platforms. If realised, this is not merely a complement to C-RAM — it is a partial substitute. The doctrinal justification for additional static 35mm batteries narrows when 600 mobile Skyrangers with integral missiles are available across the same theatre.
• Interceptor drones have demonstrated a cost-per-kill an order of magnitude below even 35mm gun engagement. They cannot replace the C-RAM's all-weather, rapid-reaction capability against rockets, artillery, and fast cruise missiles — but for the high-volume drone threat that originally justified the C-RAM layer, they may prove the more scalable and affordable solution.

Germany needs gun-based air defence. The question is what form the lowest tier takes. A force of 600 Skyranger 30 vehicles with DefendAir missiles, networked with static Skynex batteries at fixed sites, supplemented by interceptor drones for volume absorption — this is a more complex architecture than the three-tier model described in May 2025, and it may require fewer dedicated C-RAM batteries than originally envisaged.

Großwald will continue monitoring:

• NNbS Teilprojekt 3 platform selection — whether it materialises in 2026
• Italy's operational evaluation of Skynex — the first NATO live reference
• Whether the Bundeswehr programmes an interceptor drone capability for homeland air defence
• LEAP initial results — the E5 nations' low-cost effector development
• The 500–600 Skyranger framework contract — whether it solidifies or contracts

Germany's C-RAM programme is delayed. By the time the hardware arrives, the architecture around it may require a different solution than the one originally specified.

Related Reads

• Großwald Systems: European Sky Shield Initiative
• Großwald Systems: IRIS-T Surface-to-Air Missile Family
• Germany Approves 35mm C-RAM Layer to Counter Drone Swarms (May 2025)