Signal No. 21 · Switzerland requests CHF 3.4bn for IAMD · 20 March 2026

Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev proposed at a meeting in Miami last week with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that Russia would cease sharing targeting data on US military assets with Iran if Washington ended its intelligence partnership with Ukraine. The US rejected the offer. Separately, Russia has earned an estimated $150 million per day in windfall oil revenue since the war began, and the US has relaxed sanctions on Russian crude already at sea to ease energy prices — meaning Moscow is being paid in both intelligence leverage and cash for a war it did not start.

Meanwhile, Patrushev told Kommersant on Wednesday that Russia is considering deploying naval "mobile firing groups" to escort shadow fleet tankers after suspected Ukrainian strikes on vessels including the Arctic Metagaz LNG carrier off Libya. He also signalled Moscow's intent to re-flag shadow fleet vessels under the Russian flag and build sovereign maritime logistics — shipping, insurance, port capacity — to reduce dependence on flags of convenience. The move comes as western authorities increasingly pursue third-country flag states, and as the US relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil at sea further fractures the EU–US sanctions alignment.

UK Defence Minister Luke Pollard and Germany’s State Secretary for Armament Jens Plötner met in Berlin on 16 March to advance the Deep Precision Strike missile programme. The weapons family will include stealth cruise and hypersonic variants with ranges exceeding 2,000 kilometres, targeting service entry in the 2030s. The initial focus is ground-launched systems — dispersed, survivable, designed against hardened and time-sensitive targets — with air- and naval-launched variants to follow. The programme sits within the European Long-range Strike Approach (ELSA) and builds on the October 2024 Trinity House Agreement. Aviation Week reports that the scope is broadening beyond the original ground-launch concept, and the programme remains open to additional partner nations.

Zelenskyy confirmed Friday that Ukrainian specialists are actively helping five Gulf and Middle Eastern countries counter Iranian drone attacks, with the United States and European countries also requesting support. Ukraine is exploring whether it can contribute to restoring security in the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, the European Council formalised the relationship overnight, welcoming in its Middle East conclusions "Ukraine's readiness to provide support and expertise in air defence and counter-drone systems to Gulf countries." Trump, asked about Ukraine's drone cooperation offer, rejected it on Fox News: "No, we don't need their help on drone defense." Brussels took the opposite position.

The operation is already substantial. NSDC Secretary Umerov led a delegation to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan this week, confirming that 201 Ukrainian counter-drone specialists are deployed with interceptor units protecting civilian and critical infrastructure. Zelenskyy has proposed a swap: Gulf-held Pac-2 and Pac-3 missiles — which Ukraine desperately needs against Russian ballistic strikes — in exchange for Ukrainian drone interceptors at $1,000–$2,000 per unit. The UAE has requested approximately 5,000, Qatar 2,000, and Saudi Arabia has signed a deal. Ukraine produces roughly 2,000 interceptor-class drones per day, with half consumed domestically.

Kallas announced the Iceland partnership at the EU Ambassadors' Conference on 9 March (Signal No. 13). The signing on 18 March added the full text, and it says more than the announcement suggested. The non-binding declaration commits both sides to "intensifying the exchange of information on security aspects" of the Arctic, "monitoring regional developments, climate issues, and cyber and hybrid threats." It provides a framework for Icelandic participation in EU defence programmes, potentially including SAFE and EDIRPA. Kallas named both Russia and China as drivers — "from Russian threats to the seabed infrastructure, to China's growing interest in the Arctic" — framing the partnership as a response to a three-way contest, not a bilateral irritant.

The signature landed in the same week that DR's investigation revealed Arctic Endurance was a defence contingency against a US seizure of Greenland — though the partnership was announced well before DR published. The convergence is contextual, not reactive, but it underscores the same shift: Nordic capitals are formalising European security ties at a pace unimaginable before Washington began treating allied territory as negotiable. On 6 March, Iceland's Prime Minister Frostadóttir announced a referendum on whether to resume EU accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August. Kallas addressed it directly at the ceremony: "Should Icelanders choose to pursue EU membership, Iceland would certainly be a front runner in this process."