Signal No. 17 · No appetite for Aspides, Kallas floats 'Black Sea Grain' model · 16 March 2026

The EU Foreign Affairs Council met in Brussels today with one practical question: whether to extend Operation Aspides — the EU naval mission protecting Red Sea shipping — to the Strait of Hormuz. High Representative Kallas came in arguing expansion would be the quickest route to a European naval presence in the Gulf. She left with what she called "no appetite" among the 27 ministers to change the mandate.

Germany’s language was among the clearest. Defence Minister Pistorius, after meeting his Latvian counterpart Spruds in Berlin, gave the bluntest version of the argument heard across the table: "What does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to achieve that the powerful US Navy cannot?"
Chancellor Merz, repeating his position from Norway on Friday, said Germany is "not a party to this war" and that no workable concept for such an operation has been set out.

France's position was more conditional than Berlin's. Macron said freedom of navigation "must be restored as soon as possible" and described France as acting in a "strictly defensive framework," while earlier signalling interest in a defensive escort mission once the most intense phase of the war had passed.

Italy's Foreign Minister Tajani said Aspides is a defensive anti-piracy mission and that extending it to Hormuz would be "complicated." UK Prime Minister Starmer said Britain is working on a plan but "will not be drawn into the wider war." Similarly, Finland pushed back, with Foreign Minister Valtonen telling Yle that NATO's main threat remains Russia and that Finland's navy is not configured for Gulf deployment.

The refusal was broad but not total. Estonia's Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told ERR that Tallinn is "ready to discuss" the issue with Washington, making Estonia one of the few European governments to leave the door open publicly. Lithuania likewise said NATO should consider the request if it comes, while Denmark — with 10 Maersk ships trapped in the Gulf and a snap election due on 24 March — signalled a more open-minded position than Berlin or London. Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski said Warsaw would "consider it very carefully" if asked through NATO but has no plans to send forces.

Within hours, Kallas pivoted. She told reporters she had spoken to UN Secretary-General Guterres about replicating the Black Sea Grain Initiative — the 2022 UN-brokered deal that kept Ukrainian grain moving through a war zone — as a model for Hormuz. Trump responded to the collective refusal by threatening that NATO faces a "very bad" future: "We will remember."