Großwald Curated | Weekly No.16: Taurus, Drones & Europe’s Rearmament

The transatlantic consensus is cracking—quietly, and in plain sight. This week, Germany edges closer to arming Ukraine with Taurus missiles, fast-tracks AI-powered drones, and greenlights Arrow 3 deployment.

NATO’s posture shifts across the Baltic, Black Sea, and high north. In Brussels and Berlin, it’s logistics season—not conference season. Meanwhile, the U.S. pulls back, and Germany finds itself—again—as the hinge.

A curated dispatch from the front lines of Europe’s defense pivot.

This Week’s Structure:

I. Ukraine War & Strategic Realignments
– Transatlantic Fractures and Europe’s Calculus
– Ukraine’s NATO Bid and Merz’s Realpolitik

II. Germany: The Emerging Defense Backbone
– Germany’s Role as Test Case for European Readiness
– Drone Breakthrough: Stark OWE-V and AI-Enabled Strike
– Taurus Missile Debate: A Flashpoint for Coordination
– Arrow 3 at Holzdorf: Strategic Shield or Political Fuse?

III. NATO Posture & Regional Hotspots
– Bundeswehr at Desert Flag: Return to Joint Combat Air Ops
– Regional Watch: Black Sea, Middle East, Arctic Escalations
– CEE Flashpoints: Rule-of-Law Battles, Defense Realignments

IV. Transatlantic Strain & Strategic Divergence
– U.S.–EU Tensions: Trade, DEI, and Travel Politics
– Europe in Orbit: German Satellite Defense by 2029

I. Ukraine War and Strategic Realignments

Ukraine Conflict: Transatlantic Fractures and Europe’s Strategic Calculus

Efforts to broker peace in Ukraine dominated the week, revealing widening divergences across the NATO alliance. In Paris, representatives from Ukraine, the U.S., and EU—including Germany’s national security advisor Jens Plötner—held closed-door talks described by French officials as an “excellent exchange” (Rheinische Post, Die Welt). U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, signaled potential disengagement: “If it’s not feasible [to end the war] in the short term… we just have to move on” (Der Spiegel, T-Online).

This stance drew public rebuke from senior German lawmakers. Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU) warned of a collapse in trust in the U.S. as a security guarantor, while Sergey Lagodinsky (Greens) criticized the Biden-to-Trump transition as devolving into “bazaar-style bargaining” (Der Tagesspiegel).

France, the UK, and other European states reiterated their support for military reinforcement of Ukraine ahead of any negotiations. President Zelenskyy again requested urgent air defense systems following Russian drone strikes, stating: “Every defense package… literally protects lives” (Telegram, cited in Die Welt).

Ukraine’s NATO Bid and Merz’s Realpolitik

Chancellor-designate Merz expressed opposition to Ukraine’s NATO or EU accession while the war is ongoing, but reaffirmed long-term commitments. He warned against underestimating Russian endurance and stressed that “Europe is a capable and ready political unit” (Handelsblatt). Ambassador Oleksii Makeiev responded by calling Germany “our ally number one” and reaffirmed Kyiv’s NATO ambitions (RND).