Signal No. 5 · US, Israel, Iran: Europe split on response · 28 February 2026
US and Israeli strikes kill Khamenei. Europe's three largest military powers distance themselves within hours. The transatlantic gap on the use of force is wider than at any point since Iraq 2003.
Großwald Signal · No. 5
Saturday, 28 February 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran; European leaders split on response
INT RUC CNN, 28 Feb · PBS, 28 Feb · Euronews, 28 Feb · Al Jazeera, 28 Feb
The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran on Saturday, targeting air defence systems, missile facilities, and military command infrastructure in what the Pentagon designated Operation Epic Fury and Israel codenamed Roaring Lion. Approximately 200 Israeli fighter aircraft struck over 500 targets across western and central Iran, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas convened an emergency foreign ministers' session for Sunday. European leaders split sharply: French President Macron called the strikes "an outbreak of war" carrying "serious consequences for international peace and security" and demanded a UN Security Council meeting; Spain's Sánchez rejected the "unilateral military action" as a violation of international law; Ireland urged restraint.
Signals
Merz's Munich warning on NATO's future gains new weight after Iran strikes
INT DPL MSC, 13 Feb · Euronews, 13 Feb
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the Munich Security Conference on 13 February that he is "not sure whether NATO in its current form will exist in five or ten years," adding he never expected to make such a statement. The remarks — delivered amid escalating tensions with Washington over European defence spending levels and NATO's geographic scope — take on sharper significance after today's US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which confronted Europe with a major security crisis in which it had no operational role. Merz framed the uncertainty as a case for European strategic autonomy, calling for a European security strategy "not to replace NATO but as a self-sustained, strong pillar within the alliance."
Fincantieri and Navantia form joint venture for European Patrol Corvette
SEA DIN Naval News, 26 Feb · Defense Post, 27 Feb · Euro-SD, 26 Feb
Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri and Spain's Navantia signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a joint venture managing the European Patrol Corvette programme — the EU's flagship naval collaboration, involving 46 companies from 12 countries. The EDF allocated EUR 154 million for the current design and prototyping phase. The JV will drive the Full Combat Multipurpose variant and is open to additional partners, with France and Greece as current programme participants.
Poland details SAFE spending: PLN 250 billion for air defence as Nawrocki weighs veto
PLB IAMD Breaking Defense, 28 Feb · Defence24, Feb 2026 · Defense News, 2 Feb · Brussels Signal, Feb 2026
New reporting reveals Warsaw intends to commit approximately PLN 250 billion (~EUR 58 billion) from SAFE funds to air defence — potentially the largest single IAMD acquisition programme in European history. Separately, the Kongsberg-PGZ consortium's PLN 15 billion (~EUR 3.5 billion) San counter-drone system, signed 30 January, will deliver 18 batteries to protect NATO's eastern flank, with first components arriving in 2026. President Nawrocki's 21-day decision clock continues; PM Tusk has stated Poland will proceed with SAFE "even if the president vetoes."
Europe will need until the early 2030s to replace US defence enablers, survey finds
INT MDF Defense News, 27 Feb
A Defense News survey of security researchers and experts finds Europe is best positioned in strategic airlift and aerial refuelling — capabilities that can reach sufficiency within years — but faces the greatest gaps in space-based ISR and integrated air and missile defence, where half of respondents estimate more than five years to reach adequate levels. France and Germany's Joint Early Warning for a European Lookout project, combining missile-launch detection satellites with ground radars, targets initial operating capability in the early 2030s.
Procurement
SEA European Patrol Corvette JV
Italy / Spain · EUR 154M current EDF phase · Fincantieri-Navantia JV
MoU signed, JV formation pending
IAMD AI San counter-drone system (18 batteries)
Poland · PLN 15bn (~EUR 3.5bn) · Kongsberg-PGZ
Contract signed Jan 2026, first deliveries 2026
AIR New Medium Helicopter (AW149)
UK · GBP 1bn (~EUR 1.17bn) · Leonardo (Yeovil)
MoD announcement expected 2 March
Exercises
LA FAYETTE 26 | North Atlantic and Baltic | ongoing
Charles de Gaulle CSG continuing Baltic and North Atlantic deployment. Following the Malmö drone incident (reported Signal No. 4), the carrier group is transiting toward participation in Neptune Strike, Baltic Sentry, and Cold Response.
Cold Response 26 | Northern Norway | field phase 9–19 Mar
Combined Joint Logistics Support Group operational at Reitan since 27 Feb. 25,000 personnel, 14 nations. Charles de Gaulle CSG to participate. Largest NATO Arctic exercise this year.
Dynamic Manta 26 | Central Mediterranean | 23 Feb – 6 Mar
Ongoing. 10 nations. Concludes 6 Mar.
Forward look
Iran crisis: EU foreign ministers emergency session Sunday 1 March, convened by Kallas. European positions diverging — watch for whether any formal NATO statement is issued and whether deployments in the Gulf region affect European force posture.
EU Industrial Accelerator Act presentation rescheduled to 4 March after three delays; "Made in Europe" defence procurement provisions remain the central dispute.
Poland SAFE: Nawrocki decision clock at 20 days; PiS opposition calling for US alternative to EU loans.
Cold Response 26 field phase begins 9 March. 25,000 personnel, 14 nations, northern Norway.
Rheinmetall annual report 11 March — markets watching order book growth against EUR 152 billion Bundeswehr pipeline.
Hungary veto on EUR 90 billion Ukraine loan and 20th sanctions package — Article 327 legal review ongoing, no resolution before March.
