Signal No. 49 · Romania/Poland SAFE; SAETA II; CV90 to $8bn

Romanian lawmakers approved on Tuesday a €8.33bn defence acquisition package to be financed under the EU's SAFE instrument, clearing the last domestic procedural hurdle before the 30 May 2026 deadline for single-state procurement contracts. Defence Minister Radu Miruță presented the parliamentary committee package, which spans approximately ten anti-drone projects alongside major land, naval, and air programmes. Rheinmetall is the principal contractor across roughly €5bn of the total, including the KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicle programme, Skynex air defence, a munitions ignition powder factory, tanks, and — through its Naval Vessels Lürssen subsidiary — the takeover of the bankrupt state-owned Mangalia shipyard with a contract to build four corvettes for the Romanian military by 2030. Airbus is contracted to produce helicopters in Romania for several EU customers; eight separate contracts cover radars and anti-drone systems. Romania can access €16.6bn from SAFE through 2030, the largest among the 19 member states participating.

In parallel, Poland's Agencja Uzbrojenia confirmed on 27 April the formal cancellation of multiple ammunition and combat-equipment tender procedures originally launched in September 2025. The cancelled procedures, formally annulled on 21 April, covered 7.62×51 mm DA165 ammunition for M134 multi-barrel machine guns (280,000 rounds), 76 mm smoke grenades for Leopard 2 (11,604 units), 8.6×70 mm Lock Base 19.4 g sniper ammunition (45,000 rounds), and various Mk 44/S Bushmaster II calibres. The Agency cited the planned shift of these acquisitions to SAFE financing in whole or part; tenders launched outside SAFE would not meet its transparency and competitiveness conditions.

Germany did not apply for SAFE financing and is funding rearmament from the national budget — including the €144.9bn 2027 defence budget circulating ahead of formal announcement (Signal No. 48).

Signal › Romania cleared parliament weeks before the 30 May deadline and weeks before a May no-confidence vote against its fractured four-party coalition. Miruța said parliamentary clearance was meant to insulate the procurement package from political instability. Poland's Agencja Uzbrojenia cancelled the September 2025 ammunition tenders because they were launched outside SAFE rules and would have to be re-run under them.

Rheinmetall takes ~€5bn — KF41 IFVs, the munitions ignition factory, Skynex, tanks, and the Mangalia shipyard takeover for four corvettes by 2030.

Airbus Defence and Space and Turkish Aerospace (TUSAŞ) presented the industrial plan for Spain's Integrated Combat Training System (ITS-C) at Getafe on Tuesday, formalising the structure of the December 2025 contract. The 30-aircraft fleet — designated SAETA II in Spanish service — replaces the Spanish Air and Space Force's 19 remaining Northrop F-5M trainers operational since the late 1960s. Airbus is prime contractor; TUSAŞ supplies the HÜRJET advanced jet trainer base platform; total programme value is estimated at €2.6bn, with the December contract authorisation valued at €3.12bn covering aircraft, ground-based training system, and integrated operation and maintenance services through 30 November 2035.

Spanish industrial workshare totals 60% across 15 firms. Programme-defining national integrators include GMV (inertial/GPS navigation and mission computer), Sener (datalink), Aertec (remote interface unit), Grupo Oesía (audio management), Orbital (VMDR mission recorder) and Indra (Identification Friend or Foe; simulators co-developed with Airbus). Airbus will lead the redesign of the Fighter and Strike School Training Centre at Talavera la Real Air Base in Extremadura. Phase 1 begins with TUSAŞ delivery of an initial batch of 21 aircraft from 2028, one of which will serve as Airbus's avionics and mission-systems prototype; ground-based training enters service in the 2029-2030 academic year. Phase 2 converts all 30 aircraft to Spanish standards with simulator updates, with completed-variant deliveries scheduled 2031-2035.

Signal › Spain has placed every combat-air contract since December 2024 with Airbus or Airbus-led consortia: Halcón II Eurofighter (December 2024), 18 C295 transports and 100 helicopters (December 2025), now SAETA II. FCAS — the alternative European axis — returned to ministry-level work after the 18 April Macron-Merz mediation collapsed. With the F-35 ruled out in August 2025 and the F-18 fleet reportedly extended to 2040, the front-line successor remains the open question.

Turkish Aerospace re-enters a major European programme as subcontractor under Airbus prime. EU-Turkey defence-industrial friction history includes Turkey's F-35 ejection. One of the first 21 aircraft is reserved for Airbus to use as the Spanish-specification prototype for avionics and mission systems.

Defence and Space carried Airbus's Q1 2026; Commercial dragged. Defence and Space revenues of €2.83bn (+7%); EBIT Adjusted of €130m versus €77m a year earlier (+69%); order intake of €4.96bn versus €2.59bn (+91%), driven mainly by the Air Power business unit. Commercial aircraft EBIT Adjusted dropped to €81m from €494m (-84%) on 114 deliveries (Q1 2025: 136), reflecting the lower delivery count and an unfavourable hedge rate. Group consolidated Q1 revenues of €12.65bn (-7% YoY) and EBIT Adjusted of €300m (Q1 2025: €624m). Airbus Helicopters delivered 56 units (Q1 2025: 51) on stable revenues of €1.6bn.

Free cash flow before customer financing was -€2.49bn (Q1 2025: -€310m), reflecting the lower commercial deliveries on top of planned inventory build-up across the ramp-up programmes. Net cash position fell to €9.85bn at end-March from €12.17bn at year-end 2025. Pratt & Whitney engines remain the pacer of the A320 Family ramp-up, impacting both 2026 and 2027; the Company continues to expect 70-75 aircraft per month by end-2027, stabilising at rate 75 thereafter.

CEO Guillaume Faury said Airbus was "closely monitoring the potential impact from the fast-changing situation in the Middle East". Full-year 2026 guidance is unchanged: ~870 commercial aircraft deliveries, EBIT Adjusted of ~€7.5bn, and free cash flow before customer financing of ~€4.5bn.

Signal › Defence and Space order intake nearly doubled YoY — and that includes neither the Halcón II nor the SAETA II contracts (signed December 2025), nor any potential SAFE-funded follow-ons routed through the Spanish Airbus DS subsidiary that booked them. Air Power is the dominant volume driver. Helicopter deliveries (56) and revenues (€1.6bn) are flat year-on-year — no comparable rearmament uplift in that segment.

Pratt & Whitney engine availability is the binding constraint on the A320 Family rate trajectory; Airbus has held its 2026 guidance unchanged, but the Q1 cash-flow profile is -€2.5bn through March alone. Airbus's Iran monitoring statement landed the same day as Melrose/GKN Aerospace's Q1 freight-cost inflation flag (Reuters 29 Apr). Both Q1 statements flag Iran-war supply-chain impact.

The fifth and final K130 batch 2 corvette, LÜBECK, was christened on 29 April at Rheinmetall's Hamburg Blohm+Voss yard in the presence of Vice Admiral Axel Deertz (Deputy Inspector of the Navy and Commander of the Fleet and Forces Support Command), Jürgen Giefer (Director, BAAINBw), and Lübeck mayor Jan Lindenau. The 89-metre vessel will undergo final outfitting and commissioning in Hamburg, then function tests and acceptance procedures with the BAAINBw and German Navy. The K130 batch 2 is being delivered by the ARGE K130 led by Rheinmetall Naval Systems with TKMS and German Naval Yards Kiel; deliveries of EMDEN and KÖLN are scheduled for later this year. Rheinmetall AG CEO Armin Papperger noted it was the company's first ship christening.

Separately on 29 April, TKMS and Skaramangas Shipyards signed a comprehensive and exclusive agreement to jointly execute the Mid-Life Upgrade programme for the Hellenic Navy's four HDW Class 214 submarines, with TKMS as Original Equipment Manufacturer and substantial activity carried out domestically in Greece.

Signal › Two parallel German naval-shipbuilding moves on the same day. The Lübeck christening closes the K130 batch 2 build cycle — the first ship christening in Rheinmetall's history. The Naval Systems division was acquired in late 2024. Emden and Köln deliver this year; the batch 2 build phase is effectively complete.

TKMS extends OEM lifecycle work into Greek shipyard capacity. The structure mirrors Naval Vessels Lürssen at Mangalia and the Airbus-led SAETA II workshare in Spain: lifecycle integration localised in the customer state, OEM retains technical control.

Hägglunds MD Tommy Gustafsson-Rask told Reuters the order book has grown from "a couple of hundred million U.S. dollars" when he took the role in 2012 to approximately $8bn today. He identified the 2014 annexation of Crimea as the inflection point and the 2022 Russian invasion as the trigger for the steepest growth phase. Output has surged 400% since 2020; headcount has more than tripled from 800 to 2,600, making Hägglunds the largest single employer in Örnsköldsvik (population ~56,000). Capital expenditure totals $300m, including a third welding/production line operational this year.

The CV90 fifth-generation Combat Vehicle 90 IFV has sold over 1,300 units with more than 600 on order; the platform now serves ten European countries, with unit cost reported at approximately $10m. Hägglunds expects to secure orders for a further ~500 CV90s for five European nations later in 2026.

Signal › If finalised, the Q2 2026 joint order would exceed any previous single CV90 contract. CV90 competes with Rheinmetall's Lynx (Hungary-built) and KNDS's Boxer in current European IFV procurement. The CV90 User Club lets participating states share development costs, spares, and cross-licensed local production.

FPV and loitering munitions are a known threat to heavy IFVs, including CV90s in Ukrainian service. Gustafsson-Rask cited Zelensky's acknowledgment that no Ukrainian crew has died inside a CV90. The contractual backlog now extends well into 2030.

The Russian Defence Ministry announced the 9 May Victory Day parade in Moscow will not include heavy military equipment — the first such absence since 2007 — citing the "current operational situation". Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "all measures are being taken to minimise the danger", characterising the threat as terrorist activity by Kyiv. Last year's 80th-anniversary parade featured approximately 11,000 troops and around 150 military vehicles including tanks, hosted alongside foreign leaders including Xi Jinping, Lula da Silva, and Robert Fico. This year's parade is to feature thousands of officer cadets marching past, a flyover, and televised footage of forces deployed in Ukraine.

Hours before the announcement, Ukrainian SBU drones struck a Transneft oil pumping station near the city of Perm, approximately 1,500km from the Ukrainian border in the Urals region. The Perm regional governor confirmed an industrial-facility fire. The SBU described the station as a strategically important hub distributing oil in four directions, including to a Perm refinery. Ukrainian President Zelensky said throughput losses at Russia's three principal western export ports stood at: Primorsk -13%, Ust-Luga -43%, Novorossiysk -38%. The Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea was struck for the third time in two weeks on 28 April. Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has reported Shahed-class drone interception at 90% (up from 85% in February) against a 95% target; 15-20% of Russian Shaheds are now jet-powered, capable of 400 km/h versus the 200 km/h propeller variant.

Signal › The 9 May parade is being scaled back less than a year after the 80th-anniversary edition, which brought 27 foreign dignitaries to Red Square. The Perm strike came the same day as the parade announcement, demonstrating 1,500km strike range in practice.

Ukrainian Shahed interception is at 90% against Fedorov's 95% target. Russia is adapting: jet propulsion on 15-20% of the Shahed fleet, mesh networks across 120km grids, AI-driven flight planning. Russian export-port losses cited by Zelensky reflect cumulative damage rather than single-event throughput; trade sources report April crude loadings at Primorsk and Ust-Luga have nonetheless held at March levels despite the strikes (Reuters 29 Apr).