Signal No. 16 · Merz and Carney in Norway: 212CD, Andøya, and a Hedge Against US Policy · 13 March 2026
Signal No. 16
Friday · 13 March 2026
DEZ SEA Merz and Carney in Norway: Submarines, Space, and “We Relied on Others for Too Long”
BMVg 13 Mar · Table.Briefings 13 Mar · Isar Aerospace 13 Mar · Handelsblatt 13 Mar · DW 13 Mar · Der SPIEGEL 13 Mar
German Chancellor Merz, Defence Minister Pistorius, Norwegian Prime Minister Støre, and Canadian Prime Minister Carney met in Arctic Norway on 12–13 March for a visit centred on submarines but framed much more broadly. Merz used the trip to distance Berlin from the Iran war — “Germany is not part of this war, and we do not want to become part of it” — and to reject any easing of Russia sanctions despite rising oil prices, even as Washington has issued a temporary licence allowing certain Russian crude sales until 11 April. Carney also backed maintaining sanctions and explicitly cited Russia’s shadow fleet. German coverage anchored the visit around Merz’s line: “Wir haben uns zu lange auf andere verlassen” — “we relied on others for too long.”
Submarines. The centrepiece was the Type 212CD programme. Norway has increased its order from four to six boats, in what German officials described as “a strong signal to Canada.” A formal offer was presented to Ottawa on 2 March. Canada plans to acquire up to 12 submarines to replace its four Victoria-class boats by 2035, with South Korea’s Hanwha the only publicly identified alternative bidder. If Canada joins, the project becomes a trilateral programme spanning construction, maintenance, and crew training across three NATO navies for 40–50 years.
Pistorius said that “only through interoperability, joint maintenance and training can security be sustainably guaranteed” in the North Atlantic. For thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, which is building the 212CD in Kiel, a Canadian commitment would help secure yard workload well into the 2040s. Carney arrived in Norway after announcing CAD 32 billion for northern defence and NORAD modernisation in Yellowknife on Thursday — not as a passive guest, but as a prospective buyer with money already committed to the north.
Space. Merz, Pistorius, and Research Minister Bär toured Isar Aerospace’s launch pad at Andøya Space, continental Europe’s first orbital launch site. Pistorius has earmarked EUR 35 billion from the defence budget for sovereign space capability. Isar Aerospace CEO Daniel Metzler said: “True sovereignty begins on the launch pad.” The qualification-flight window for Spectrum opens NET 19 March. Andøya would give Europe a sovereign small-satellite launch option outside both Ariane’s heavy-launch model and dependence on SpaceX.
Cold Response 2026. At Bardufoss, Merz, Støre, and Carney rode together in a CV90 during Cold Response 26, involving about 12,000 troops from 14 nations. That was below the originally planned 25,000 after several participants redirected equipment to Middle East contingencies. The image — three NATO leaders in a Swedish-built IFV in the Arctic — visually reinforced the broader message of the visit: northern defence, industrial cooperation, and reduced dependence on others.
Merz also used the trip to reject both US sanctions relief for Russia and German involvement in the Iran war, which clarifies the political frame he is trying to build: European industrial autonomy not as a supplement to American policy, but as insurance against shifts in it. Carney — backing sanctions, naming the shadow fleet, and arriving with CAD 32 billion for northern defence — gave that frame added transatlantic credibility.
Signals
IAMD INT Iran Spillover Hits Turkey and Iraq Below NATO’s Formal Threshold
Al Jazeera 13 Mar · Reuters 13 Mar · Reuters 12 Mar · Reuters 13 Mar
Turkey said on 13 March that NATO air and missile defence assets intercepted a third ballistic missile launched from Iran in nine days after it entered Turkish airspace over Hatay province. Reuters reported an explosion near Incirlik Air Base in Adana province after the intercept. Ankara said it had asked Tehran for clarification; Iran denied targeting Turkey and offered a joint investigation. Turkey has not specified the missile’s intended target. The sequence now stands at 4 March, 9 March and 13 March, confirming a pattern of repeated live intercepts on NATO’s southeastern flank rather than a one-off spillover event.
At the same time, one French serviceman was killed and six others were wounded in a drone attack on coalition forces in northern Iraq. Reuters reported that the strike was carried out with an Iran-made Shahed UAV and that an Iraqi Shi’ite militia claimed responsibility. President Emmanuel Macron said France’s posture in the region remains defensive. The incident shows that the same escalation cycle is also reaching European forces deployed outside NATO territory on standing counterterrorism missions.
AIR DIN Vucic Confirms Chinese CM-400AKG Missiles on Serbian MiG-29s — First European Operator
Bloomberg 13 Mar · Reuters 13 Mar · The War Zone 11 Mar
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic confirmed that Serbia has acquired Chinese CM-400AKG air-to-surface missiles after leaked photographs showed the weapons mounted on Serbian MiG-29s. Reuters reported that the CASIC-made missile has a range of up to 400 km, making Serbia the first European country to operate the system.
The purchase extends a broader Serbian procurement pattern in which China has become Belgrade’s largest arms supplier over the 2021–2025 period, according to SIPRI-based reporting. Reuters noted that Serbia had already procured Chinese FK-3 air-defence systems and CH-92A drones, even as Belgrade also maintains defence ties with France, Airbus and Russia. Croatia has criticized the missile purchase as a threat to regional stability and a sign of a growing Balkan arms race.
DPL PLB Poland's President Vetoes EUR 44bn SAFE Bill — Tusk Bypasses Him Within 24 Hours
Notes From Poland 12 Mar · Notes From Poland 13 Mar · Euronews 13 Mar
President Nawrocki vetoed the legislation enabling Poland to receive EUR 43.7 billion in SAFE defence loans on 12 March — the largest single-country allocation under the programme. He called it a debt that would "burden our children and grandchildren for decades." His office warned against "any attempts to increase our country's foreign debt in an illegal manner."
Within 24 hours, Tusk's government adopted a resolution routing the funds through BGK (Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, the state development bank) and the Armed Forces Support Fund. Tusk: the veto raised questions whether this was "treason, the work of lobbyists, or a lack of common sense." The Commission confirmed it would begin implementation "without delay," with advance payments possible as early as April.
Plan B has real costs. Without the vetoed law, 7.1 billion zloty earmarked for police, border guard, and security services cannot be allocated. A further 9.2 billion zloty for security infrastructure is at risk. VAT exemptions are lost. The workaround covers military procurement only.
Procurement watch
NAVY DIN Greece · Athens targets Italy FREMM deal by April
Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias said Athens aims to finalise a deal with Italy by April for two Bergamini-class FREMM frigates, with an option for two more. Greece also wants the ships configured to carry the ELSA missile system. The programme sits within Greece’s broader EUR 28bn defence modernisation push.
DIN Leonardo · FY2025 results and 2026 guidance
Leonardo reported FY2025 revenues of EUR 19.5bn (+11%), new orders of EUR 23.8bn (+15%), EBITA of EUR 1.75bn (+18%), and group net debt of EUR 1.0bn, down 44% from EUR 1.8bn in 2024. Order backlog exceeded EUR 46bn, equal to about 2.4 years of production coverage. For 2026, Leonardo guided to revenues of about EUR 21bn and EBITA of about EUR 2.03bn. Combined with Rheinmetall’s 11 March FY2025 results — sales of EUR 9.9bn (+29%) and backlog of EUR 63.8bn (+36%) — the two groups reported about EUR 110bn in combined backlog in the same week.
IAMD DIN Kongsberg · Belgian NASAMS supply-chain LoIs at BEDEX
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace signed letters of intent with three Belgian companies — Intersoft Advionics, Sioen Industries, and Feronyl — for NASAMS / ground-based air-defence industrial cooperation at BEDEX. Company representatives indicated roles spanning electronics, camouflage nets, and mechanical subcomponents. Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken said the firms would support both Belgian NASAMS and Kongsberg’s wider supply chain, and Janes reported that he reaffirmed Belgium’s plans to procure NASAMS.
Forward look
14 March: BEDEX public day in Brussels; event concludes that evening. Commissioner Andrius Kubilius is scheduled to take part in the closing event.
NET 19 March: Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum qualification-flight launch window opens no earlier than 19 March at Andøya, subject to weather and range availability.
19 March: Baltic Security Conference, Riga. Organisers say the event will bring together around 2,500 participants. Latvia’s FM Baiba Braže has said allies should be able to demonstrate progress toward the NATO 5% target by the 2026 Ankara summit.
19–20 March: European Council in Brussels. Costa’s 12 March invitation letter says leaders will discuss Ukraine, the Middle East and Europe’s competitiveness/strategic autonomy; Zelensky is to address leaders at the start of the Ukraine discussion.
12 April: Hungary parliamentary election. Polling remains sharply split: a recent 21 Research Centre poll put Tisza 14 points ahead among decided voters, while Nézőpont has reported a Fidesz lead.
