Signal No. 13 · Iranian missiles strike German base in Jordan · 10 March 2026
Signal No. 13
Tuesday 10 March 2026
DEZ INT Iranian Ballistic Missiles Strike German Feldlager at Al-Azraq — Berlin's Support Role Comes Under Fire
Der Spiegel 10 Mar · NPR 10 Mar · BILD 10 Mar
Iranian ballistic missiles struck the German section of Al-Azraq air base in Jordan overnight. Der Spiegel reported that an Unterkunftsgebäude (accommodation building) used by the German contingent was hit, though it remains unclear whether by a direct strike or intercept debris. All personnel were in shelters and no casualties were reported. The Bundeswehr has two A400M aircraft on standby for a possible evacuation. The Operatives Führungskommando confirmed the attack and said the incident is under investigation.
Germany has operated from Al-Azraq for years, using tanker aircraft to support the anti-ISIS coalition. The base is shared with the U.S. Air Force and had been treated as a relatively protected rear location. The strike came on the same day Pete Hegseth described the latest U.S. action against Iran as “the most intense day” of the campaign.
Al-Azraq shows the weakness of Germany’s support model: Berlin may not be fighting Iran, but its forces can still be hit by the war. Whether the building was struck directly or by debris changes little politically. A Bundeswehr facility in Jordan was hit, and a mission long treated as protected rear support no longer looks insulated from frontline risk.
Signals
RUC DIP Iran War Pushes Russian Oil from Sanctions Target to Stabilisation Tool
France24 10 Mar · Moscow Times 10 Mar · Ukrainska Pravda 10 Mar · Reuters 9 Mar
Trump and Putin spoke for one hour on Monday in their first call since December. Hours later, Trump said the United States would waive some oil-related sanctions to help stabilise supply. Washington had already moved in that direction: the U.S. Treasury on 5 March issued a general licence exempting transactions involving Rosneft Germany from sanctions, and Reuters reported that broader easing of Russian oil restrictions was under discussion as oil prices spiked. Brent, which had risen above $119 a barrel on Monday, settled at $87.80 on Tuesday.
Separately, Zelensky said a new U.S.-backed meeting had been postponed at Washington’s request because partners’ “priority and all attention are focused on the situation around Iran.” The delay came as Russia continued its drone campaign against Ukraine.
The Rosneft Germany waiver does not amount to a wholesale rollback, but it does show the direction of travel. As the Iran war drives oil higher, Russian supply is being treated less as a target of pressure than as a buffer against a larger energy shock. That weakens one of the few economic tools Washington still had over Moscow.
The diplomatic effect is similar. Zelensky’s point was not just that one meeting slipped. It was that Iran has displaced Ukraine in the hierarchy of U.S. attention. Russia does not need a formal concession from that; it benefits if sanctions loosen at the margin while diplomacy slows and the war continues at its current tempo.
PLB Tusk Confirms Nawrocki Will Veto SAFE — Poland's EUR 43.7 Billion Blocked by Gold Gambit
Polskie Radio/PAP 10 Mar MNI Market News Mar
Tusk told cabinet that President Nawrocki intends to veto the SAFE implementing bill — calling it "an unforgivable mistake." The government will develop a Plan B. Nawrocki and Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) governor Adam Glapiński unveiled “Polish SAFE 0%” on 4 March: a 185 billion zloty (€43.5 billion) proposal based on gold sell-buy-back operations that would convert unrealised reserve gains into transferable profit without reducing actual gold holdings.
MNI Market News, citing ING, said the alternative would not begin delivering funds until mid-2027. By contrast, Poland’s first SAFE tranche was due in 2026 as a 15% advance payment. Nawrocki has until 20 March to sign, veto, or refer the bill to the constitutional court.
For markets and lenders, the immediate issue is the funding delay. The gold sell-buy-back mechanism is legally novel but materially slower: ING estimates it would not produce funds until mid-2027. That shifts the question from SAFE access to bridge financing — whether Warsaw fills the €43.5 billion gap through the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), through sovereign or bilateral borrowing, or by delaying procurement.
The domestic political message is immediate: “Polish money for Polish defence.” The Brussels problem is credibility: if SAFE’s largest allocation can be vetoed at national level, the scheme starts to look less like assured funding and more like conditional political capacity.
INT DEZ Von der Leyen Calls Europe's Nuclear Exit a "Strategic Mistake" — Merz Says Germany's Is Irreversible
Bloomberg 10 Mar · NucNet 10 Mar
At the Paris Nuclear Energy Summit, von der Leyen called Europe’s nuclear retreat “a strategic mistake.” Nuclear’s share of European electricity has fallen from 33% in 1990 to 15% today. She announced a EUR 200 million SMR guarantee, targeting operational European reactors in the early 2030s.
The same day, Merz said Germany's nuclear exit "is not subject to revision" — conceding the error while ruling out a return.
Procurement watch
INT EP to vote on EU defence single market and flagship projects — Strasbourg plenary
European Parliament debates and votes this week on two own-initiative reports: a genuine EU single market for defence, and flagship European defence projects of common interest. While the Gulf crisis dominates, Brussels is building the regulatory architecture for how EUR 150 billion in SAFE loans gets spent.
European Parliament plenary agenda, 9-12 March 2026
INT EU to sign defence partnerships with Australia, Iceland, Ghana — Kallas
At the EU Ambassadors' Conference (9 Mar), Kallas announced the 10th security and defence partnership (Australia) will be signed this week, with Iceland and Ghana following. Partnerships enable joint missions and EU defence procurement access. Nine already exist, including UK, Canada, Japan, India. Brussels widening its security network beyond NATO/EU core.
DIN Rheinmetall FY2025 annual report — 11 March
First results to include NVL naval division (integrated 1 March) and DOK-ING (51% acquired 4 March). Markets expect EUR 15-16 billion 2026 revenue guidance. The Systemhaus model — land, sea, autonomous — gets priced for the first time. Three acquisitions in eight days.
Rheinmetall Investor Relations
Exercises
Cold Response 26 — 14 nations, ~25,000 personnel, northern Norway and Finnish Lapland
Forward look
11–12 March: EU informal defence ministers meeting (Cyprus presidency). Rheinmetall FY2025 results same day.
12–14 March: BEDEX, Brussels. First dedicated defence exhibition co-located with EU institutions and NATO HQ.
19–20 March: European Council. Energy crisis relief, SAFE disbursement, Fico-Orbán veto axis on EUR 90 billion Ukraine loan.
~20 March: Poland SAFE presidential decision deadline. Nawrocki's "SAFE 0%" alternative competes with EU framework.
12 April: Hungary parliamentary election.
