{ "slug": "signal-no-93-a-plan-for-the-next-war-not-this-one", "title": "Signal No. 93 · A plan for the next war, not this one", "url": "https://www.grosswald.org/signal-no-93-a-plan-for-the-next-war-not-this-one/", "canonical": "https://www.grosswald.org/signal-no-93-a-plan-for-the-next-war-not-this-one/", "type": "signal", "published": "2026-06-30T23:00:15.000+02:00", "updated": "2026-06-30T23:00:15.000+02:00", "excerpt": "\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSIGNAL No. 93\n'A plan for the next war, not this one'\nTuesday · 30 June 2026\nBritain's long-delayed Defence Investment Plan finally arrived today with its weight in the next decade: GBP 298 billion over four years, but the two largest lines — GBP 47 billion of submarines and GBP 8.6 billion for the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) fighter — mature in the mid-to-late 2030s, against a Russia the outgoing Keir Starmer himself dates to 2030, and with GBP 4.7 billion of the plan still unfun", "countries": [], "domains": [], "capabilities": [], "tags": [ "grosswald-signal" ], "sources": [ { "source": "GOV.UK", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/15-billion-new-funding-boost-to-transform-armed-forces-and-keep-the-uk-safe", "context": "LEAD: DIP figures — ~GBP298bn/4yr, GBP15bn new, GBP80bn by 2029, 2.7% GDP by 2030; GCAP >GBP8bn; munitions GBP11bn; drones >GBP5bn; homeland air/missile GBP790m; submarines/nuclear; 12 F-35A" }, { "source": "Financial Times", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.ft.com/content/de59198a-767c-436c-a5af-48c3b3c0c1ec", "context": "LEAD: short-term gaps — GCAP GBP8.6bn (+~GBP2bn), submarines GBP47bn largest item, >GBP5bn drones; Barrons 'three years away/solution ten years off'; West 'ducked the issue'; GBP4.7bn to next Budget; Burnham blindsided; cuts (Storm Shadow/Wildcat/Shadow R1/Skynet6); DE 3.7% PL 4.8%" }, { "source": "Financial Times", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.ft.com/content/44f96401-b756-4517-821c-21e1f2b3f59a", "context": "LEAD: Royal Navy pivot — Type 83 destroyers + Type 32 frigates cancelled, >=6 hybrid Common Combat Vessels (drone hubs) early 2030s; keeps 8 Type 26 + 5 Type 31; Burnham signed off plan" }, { "source": "Financial Times", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.ft.com/content/95020bd5-a717-4fcf-97d4-c218e9f4d500", "context": "LEAD: funding mechanism — 1p/GBP1 of Whitehall capital diverted, road/energy projects scrapped; defence bonds rejected; Reeves/Jarvis at launch; Burnham handover by 20 Jul; >GBP300bn total; learning Ukraine (200k drones/month)" }, { "source": "Handelsblatt", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/ruestung-grossbritannien-investiert-milliarden-in-streitkraefte-umbau-und-ki/100236762.html", "context": "LEAD + GCAP: DE-language corroboration; drones GBP5bn; 2.7% by 2030, ~4.2% by 2035; Healey resigned (wanted +GBP18bn); Al Carns floats German GCAP entry ('big fan of Germany'); GCAP >GBP8bn" }, { "source": "Janes", "date": "13 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.janes.com/defence-intelligence-insights/defence-news/defence/gcap-international-contract-to-be-signed-by-end-of-month-says-uk-government", "context": "GCAP: full trilateral design contract to be signed 'by end of month'; GBP686m Edgewing bridge (1 Apr-30 Jun); said during PM Takaichi London visit; Edgewing = BAE/Leonardo/JAIEC; 2035 ISD" }, { "source": "Bundeswehr", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/heer/aktuelles/deutsch-niederlaendisches-korps-fuehrt-in-estland-lettland-6118178", "context": "SIG2: 1st German-Netherlands Corps (Munster, ~50k, 16 nations) takes NATO command of Estonia+Latvia at Valga ToA 30 Jun; MNC NE (Szczecin) keeps Poland/Lithuania/Suwalki; Pistorius 'every inch'" }, { "source": "Reuters", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-will-stand-with-european-allies-defence-baltics-us-general-says-2026-06-30/", "context": "SIG2: US Gen Chris Donahue (relinquishes Thursday) 'boots in the mud' at Valga; second command zone for 'mass at speed'; NATO warns Russia could attack by 2029" }, { "source": "Aviation Week", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://aviationweek.com/defense/budget-policy-operations/six-f-35bs-delivered-marines-so-far-without-new-radars", "context": "SIG3: USMC accepted 6 F-35Bs with nose ballast vs AN/APG-85 radar; APG-85 not before 2028; APG-81 doesn't fit redesigned nose; USAF/Navy to follow" }, { "source": "Air & Space Forces Magazine", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.airandspaceforces.com/marines-air-force-radar-less-f-35-deliveries/", "context": "SIG3: radar-less F-35 deliveries; up to ~300 jets could ship without radars; APG-85 needs 62-80kW vs 32kW cooling; jets limited to basic flight training" }, { "source": "Cockpit", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.cockpit.aero/rubriken/detailseite/news/f-35-ohne-radar-ausgeliefert", "context": "SIG3: European angle — Switzerland's F-35A (Block 3, APG-81) unaffected; affected jets are F-35B Block 4" }, { "source": "Handelsblatt", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/ipo-investoren-finden-knds-bewertung-fuer-boersengang-wohl-zu-hoch/100236981.html", "context": "PROC: KNDS IPO valuation doubts — investors value